ā½ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 2-1 New England Revolution
Toronto FC vs New England Revolution finished 2-1. Toronto FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, New England Revolution Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at 1.30, was a half-win.
Toronto FC face New England Revolution in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 3, New England Revolution won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
š„ Best Bet
šÆ Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
š§ Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is New England Revolution Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New England Revolution win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (59%).
š Key numbers
š Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and New England Revolution. Wins shown from Toronto FCās perspective: Toronto FC 3 · 1 drawn · New England Revolution 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Toronto FC | 2 – 1 | New England Revolution | W |
| 2026-07-22 | New England Revolution | 0 – 0 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2024-04-20 | Toronto FC | 1 – 0 | New England Revolution | W |
| 2024-03-03 | New England Revolution | 0 – 1 | Toronto FC | W |
| 2023-06-24 | New England Revolution | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
š Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
New England Revolution come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Orlando City SC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Los Angeles Galaxy.
- WNew England Revolution 4-2 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- WChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- WNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- LLos Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- WColumbus Crew 1-3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
š„ Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. GomisThigh Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- Matheus PereiraGroin Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- L. StefanovicFoot Injury
- L. CampanaHamstring Injury
- A. FarrellLower-Body Injury
- I. FeingoldLower-Body Injury
- L. LangoniLower-Body Injury
ā½ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 30% to win and New England Revolution at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution Win | 40% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Toronto FC Win | 30% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
š Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New England Revolution or Draw at 1.65 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution or Draw | 68% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 58% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
š Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 66% | @ 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
š„ Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 59% | @ 1.56 |
| BTTS No | 41% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
āļø Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toronto FC or New England Revolution is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution +1.75 | 89% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| New England Revolution +1.5 | 87% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| New England Revolution +1.25 | 82% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 80% | – | 1.10 |
| New England Revolution +1 | 77% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 75% | 85% | 1.12 |
| New England Revolution +0.75 | 73% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Toronto FC +1 | 69% | 84% | 1.13 |
| New England Revolution +0.5 | 68% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 64% | 77% | 1.24 |
| New England Revolution +0.25 | 61% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 58% | – | 1.34 |
| New England Revolution 0 | 55% | 40% | @ 2.39 |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 52% | 66% | 1.43 |
| New England Revolution -0.25 | 48% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Toronto FC 0 | 45% | 60% | 1.56 |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 39% | 52% | 1.83 |
| New England Revolution -0.75 | 36% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 32% | 45% | 2.10 |
| New England Revolution -1 | 31% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 27% | 39% | 2.43 |
| New England Revolution -1.25 | 25% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Toronto FC -1 | 23% | 30% | 3.12 |
| Toronto FC -1.25 | 18% | 27% | 3.50 |
| Toronto FC -1.5 | 13% | 24% | 3.83 |
| Toronto FC -1.75 | 11% | 19% | 5.00 |
š How the market moved
ā Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
Our model's main pick is New England Revolution Asian Handicap with a +1.25 start at odds 1.30, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
Our model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs New England Revolution?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.40 for Toronto FC and 1.64 for New England Revolution. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and New England Revolution play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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