Sat 22 Aug0-2Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Lyon Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Toulouse 0-2 Lyon

Toulouse vs Lyon finished 0-2. Lyon won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Toulouse face Lyon in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, Lyon won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.60 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	8.4%	6.7%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.1%	11.3%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2	4.8%	7.6%	6.1%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.1%	3.4%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.7%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Toulouse winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Toulouse 29%Draw 29%Lyon 42%

29%29%42%

42%

Lyon Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Lyon. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 2 · 1 drawn · Lyon 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-22	Toulouse	0 – 2	Lyon	L
2026-05-10	Toulouse	2 – 1	Lyon	W
2025-10-05	Lyon	1 – 2	Toulouse	W
2025-01-18	Lyon	0 – 0	Toulouse	D
2024-09-29	Toulouse	1 – 2	Lyon	L

📈 Recent form

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.

WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.

WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Toulouse

A. DonnumPersonal Reasons
A. FrancisMuscle Injury
A. VossahSuspended (cards)

Lyon

Abner ViniciusRest
R. KluivertRest
A. Maitland-NilesRest
K. MerahAnkle Injury
M. NiakhateAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toulouse at 29% to win and Lyon at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon Win	42%	37%	@ 2.50
Draw	29%	28%	@ 3.35
Toulouse Win	29%	35%	@ 2.65

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.45 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon or Draw	70%	65%	@ 1.45
Toulouse or Draw	56%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	66%	69%	@ 1.37
Over 2.5	57%	52%	@ 1.83
Under 2.5	43%	48%	@ 1.96
Over 3.5	34%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	21%	25%	@ 3.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	57%	@ 1.63
BTTS No	40%	43%	@ 2.17

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Lyon is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lyon +1.5	88%	83%	@ 1.15
Lyon +1.25	83%	81%	1.17
Toulouse +1.75	82%	86%	1.11
Lyon +1	79%	79%	1.22
Toulouse +1.5	79%	–	1.18
Lyon +0.75	74%	71%	1.34
Toulouse +1.25	73%	78%	1.23
Lyon +0.5	70%	64%	@ 1.47
Toulouse +1	68%	–	1.23
Lyon +0.25	63%	58%	@ 1.65
Toulouse +0.75	62%	70%	1.37
Lyon 0	57%	51%	@ 1.88
Toulouse +0.5	56%	–	1.53
Lyon -0.25	50%	42%	@ 2.25
Toulouse +0.25	50%	58%	1.67
Toulouse 0	43%	49%	1.98
Lyon -0.75	38%	30%	@ 3.17
Toulouse -0.25	37%	42%	2.29
Toulouse -0.5	30%	36%	2.61
Lyon -1.25	27%	22%	@ 4.29
Toulouse -0.75	26%	29%	3.27
Toulouse -1	21%	21%	4.46
Lyon -1.75	18%	14%	@ 6.60
Toulouse -1.25	17%	19%	5.00
Toulouse -1.5	12%	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Toulouse 35%Draw 28%Lyon 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Toulouse and 1.60 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toulouse and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.