vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Toulouse vs Lyon Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toulouse vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Toulouse face Lyon in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, Lyon won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toulouse vs Lyon with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lyon with a +0.75 start at odds 1.34, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Lyon win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Lyon to win by 0+ goals at odds 2.25 (+13.4% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toulouse and Lyon. Wins shown from Toulouse’s perspective: Toulouse 2 · 1 drawn · Lyon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Toulouse | 2 – 1 | Lyon | W |
| 2025-10-05 | Lyon | 1 – 2 | Toulouse | W |
| 2025-01-18 | Lyon | 0 – 0 | Toulouse | D |
| 2024-09-29 | Toulouse | 1 – 2 | Lyon | L |
| 2024-03-15 | Toulouse | 2 – 3 | Lyon | L |
📈 Recent form
Toulouse come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Real Sociedad. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Hamburger SV.
- LToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
- WToulouse 2-1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs
- DToulouse 1-1 RodezFriendlies Clubs
- WToulouse 2-1 LyonLigue 1
- WStrasbourg 1-2 ToulouseLigue 1
Lyon come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Sparta Praha. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Sparta Praha.
- DFenerbahçe 1-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
- WLyon 3-0 Sparta PrahaUEFA Champions League
- LSparta Praha 2-1 LyonUEFA Champions League
- LReal Betis 4-0 LyonFriendlies Clubs
- WVfL Wolfsburg 0-2 LyonFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. DonnumNot in squad
- A. FrancisNot in squad
- D. MethalieSuspended (cards)
- A. VossahSuspended (cards)
- Abner ViniciusNot in squad
- R. KluivertNot in squad
- A. Maitland-NilesNot in squad
- K. MerahAnkle Injury
- M. NiakhateNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toulouse at 29% to win and Lyon at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 29% | @ 3.60 | +4.2% |
| Lyon Win | 42% | @ 2.14 | -9.4% |
| Toulouse Win | 29% | @ 3.10 | -11.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lyon or Draw at 1.35 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon or Draw | 70% | @ 1.35 | -5.7% |
| Toulouse or Draw | 56% | @ 1.67 | -6.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 57% | @ 1.73 | -2.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | @ 1.22 | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | @ 2.80 | -4.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | @ 1.42 | -6.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | @ 2.10 | -8.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | @ 4.00 | -17.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | @ 1.60 | -4.8% |
| BTTS No | 40% | @ 2.20 | -11.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toulouse or Lyon is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon -0.75 | 38% | @ 3.17 | +21.2% |
| Lyon -1.75 | 18% | @ 6.60 | +18.7% |
| Lyon -1.25 | 27% | @ 4.29 | +15.5% |
| Lyon -0.25 | 50% | @ 2.25 | +13.4% |
| Lyon 0 | 57% | @ 1.88 | +6.6% |
| Lyon +0.25 | 63% | @ 1.65 | +4.1% |
| Lyon +0.5 | 70% | @ 1.47 | +2.5% |
| Lyon +1.5 | 88% | @ 1.15 | +1.0% |
| Lyon +0.75 | 74% | 1.34 | +-0.0% |
| Lyon +1.25 | 83% | 1.17 | -2.5% |
| Lyon +1 | 79% | 1.22 | -4.2% |
| Toulouse -1 | 21% | 4.46 | -5.5% |
| Toulouse +1.5 | 79% | 1.18 | -7.1% |
| Toulouse +1.75 | 82% | 1.11 | -9.0% |
| Toulouse +1.25 | 73% | 1.23 | -10.1% |
| Toulouse +0.5 | 56% | 1.53 | -14.0% |
| Toulouse 0 | 43% | 1.98 | -14.6% |
| Toulouse +0.75 | 62% | 1.37 | -15.3% |
| Toulouse -0.25 | 37% | 2.29 | -15.8% |
| Toulouse -0.75 | 26% | 3.27 | -16.0% |
| Toulouse -1.25 | 17% | 5.00 | -16.6% |
| Toulouse +0.25 | 50% | 1.67 | -17.2% |
| Toulouse +1 | 68% | 1.23 | -17.3% |
| Toulouse -0.5 | 30% | 2.61 | -21.2% |
| Toulouse -1.5 | 12% | 5.50 | -33.0% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 42% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 44% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 42% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.16 for the home side, 1.45 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our main pick is Lyon with a +0.75 start at odds 1.34, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Lyon to win by 0+ goals at 2.25 (+13.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Lyon?
Our model makes a Lyon win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.6 scoreline for Toulouse vs Lyon.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Lyon?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Toulouse and 1.60 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toulouse and Lyon play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.