Thu 20 Aug0-1Finished

Qarabag

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Twente vs Qarabag Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Twente vs Qarabag in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Twente 0-1 Qarabag

Twente vs Qarabag finished 0-1. Qarabag won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Twente face Qarabag in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Twente won 1, Qarabag won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 2.1-0.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Twente vs Qarabag with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Qarabag +1.75 @ 1.34

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.10 – 0.52 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
1	15.3%	8.0%	2.1%	0.4%	0.0%
2	16.1%	8.3%	2.2%	0.4%	0.0%
3	11.2%	5.8%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%
4	5.9%	3.1%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 2-0

Twente winDrawQarabag win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Twente vs Qarabag comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Qarabag with a +1.75 start at odds 1.34, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Twente 36%Draw 44%Qarabag 19%

36%44%19%

44%

Draw

51%

Under 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Twente and Qarabag. Wins shown from Twente’s perspective: Twente 1 · Qarabag 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	Qarabag	1 – 2	Twente	W
2026-08-20	Twente	0 – 1	Qarabag	L

📈 Recent form

Twente

Twente come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Cambuur. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTwente 2-0 ADO Den HaagEredivisie
WTwente 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
DGroningen 2-2 TwenteEredivisie
WCambuur 1-4 TwenteEredivisie

Qarabag

Qarabag come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Dynamo Kyiv. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Twente.

WQarabag 1-0 Safa BakuPremyer Liqa
DZira 1-1 QarabagPremyer Liqa
LQarabag 1-2 TwenteUEFA Europa Conference
WTwente 0-1 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference
WQarabag 2-0 Dynamo KyivUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Twente at 36% to win and Qarabag at 19%, with the draw at 44%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	44%	24%	@ 3.75
Twente Win	36%	57%	@ 1.61
Qarabag Win	19%	19%	@ 4.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Twente or Draw at 1.14 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Twente or Draw	72%	81%	@ 1.14
Qarabag or Draw	54%	43%	@ 2.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-0.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	76%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	73%	69%	@ 1.34
Under 2.5	51%	47%	@ 1.95
Over 2.5	49%	53%	@ 1.74
Over 3.5	27%	31%	@ 2.95
Under 1.5	26%	24%	@ 3.90

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	64%	47%	@ 1.94
BTTS Yes	36%	53%	@ 1.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Twente or Qarabag is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Twente +1.5	89%	86%	1.11
Twente +1.25	84%	84%	1.12
Qarabag +2	84%	78%	@ 1.21
Qarabag +1.75	81%	–	@ 1.34
Twente +1	80%	83%	1.14
Qarabag +1.5	77%	64%	@ 1.46
Twente +0.75	76%	86%	1.10
Qarabag +1.25	72%	58%	@ 1.60
Twente +0.5	72%	–	1.16
Qarabag +1	66%	52%	@ 1.80
Twente +0.25	65%	79%	1.19
Qarabag +0.75	60%	46%	@ 2.06
Twente 0	59%	76%	1.23
Qarabag +0.5	54%	41%	@ 2.26
Twente -0.25	52%	67%	1.40
Qarabag +0.25	48%	33%	@ 2.79
Twente -0.5	46%	59%	1.58
Qarabag 0	41%	24%	@ 3.83
Twente -0.75	40%	54%	1.73
Qarabag -0.25	35%	21%	@ 4.50
Twente -1	34%	48%	1.97
Twente -1.25	28%	42%	2.26
Qarabag -0.75	24%	14%	@ 7.00
Twente -1.5	23%	36%	2.57
Qarabag -1	20%	17%	@ 5.75
Twente -2	16%	22%	4.25
Qarabag -1.25	16%	16%	6.00
Qarabag -1.5	11%	14%	6.60

📈 How the market moved

Twente 57%Draw 24%Qarabag 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Twente vs Qarabag?

Our model's main pick is Qarabag with a +1.75 start at odds 1.34, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Twente vs Qarabag?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 2.1-0.5 scoreline for Twente vs Qarabag.

What is the predicted score for Twente vs Qarabag?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.10 for Twente and 0.52 for Qarabag. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Twente and Qarabag play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.