Sat 17 Oct13:30Upcoming

⚽ Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Union Berlin have 1 win from their last 5, while Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Union Berlin won 1, Borussia Dortmund won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 1.1-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.50

63%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.11 – 2.13 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.9%	8.3%	8.9%	6.3%	3.4%
1	4.3%	9.3%	9.9%	7.0%	3.7%
2	2.4%	5.1%	5.5%	3.9%	2.1%
3	0.9%	1.9%	2.0%	1.4%	0.8%
4	0.2%	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-2

Union Berlin winDrawBorussia Dortmund win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 63% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Union Berlin 18%Draw 20%Borussia Dortmund 62%

18%20%62%

62%

Borussia Dortmund Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund. Wins shown from Union Berlin’s perspective: Union Berlin 1 · Borussia Dortmund 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-24	Union Berlin	0 – 3	Borussia Dortmund	L
2025-08-31	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 0	Union Berlin	L
2025-02-22	Borussia Dortmund	6 – 0	Union Berlin	L
2024-10-05	Union Berlin	2 – 1	Borussia Dortmund	W
2024-03-02	Union Berlin	0 – 2	Borussia Dortmund	L

📈 Recent form

Union Berlin

Union Berlin come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 17. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to SV Elversberg. Their most recent defeat was 0-7 at Bayern Munich.

WUnion Berlin 1-0 SV ElversbergBundesliga
LBayern Munich 7-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
LUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
LBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
DUnion Berlin 3-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to SC Paderborn 07. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DBorussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder BremenBundesliga
WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Union Berlin at 18% to win and Borussia Dortmund at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund Win	62%	57%	@ 1.65
Draw	20%	23%	@ 4.00
Union Berlin Win	18%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.18 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund or Draw	83%	80%	@ 1.18
Union Berlin or Draw	39%	43%	@ 2.20

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	63%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	59%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	41%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 2.5	37%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	17%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	42%	38%	@ 2.50

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 63% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 1.1-2.1 scoreline for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund.

What is the predicted score for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.11 for Union Berlin and 2.13 for Borussia Dortmund. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.