⚽ Eredivisie
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: Utrecht 1-4 AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar finished 1-4. AZ Alkmaar won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Utrecht face AZ Alkmaar in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Utrecht won 2, AZ Alkmaar won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.6-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Utrecht with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Utrecht win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Utrecht’s perspective: Utrecht 2 · 1 drawn · AZ Alkmaar 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Utrecht | 1 – 4 | AZ Alkmaar | L |
| 2026-03-01 | Utrecht | 2 – 0 | AZ Alkmaar | W |
| 2025-10-26 | AZ Alkmaar | 4 – 1 | Utrecht | L |
| 2025-01-18 | Utrecht | 0 – 0 | AZ Alkmaar | D |
| 2024-09-29 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 – 2 | Utrecht | W |
📈 Recent form
Utrecht come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Excelsior. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Feyenoord.
- LFeyenoord 5-0 UtrechtEredivisie
- WExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
- DUtrecht 3-3 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
- LUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie
AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.
- WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
- LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
- DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- O. AgougilInjury
- A. EngwandaHamstring Injury
- V. JensenKnee Injury
- M. JonathansKnee Injury
- N. OhioKnee Injury
- J. ClasieInjury
- J. HornkampAnkle Injury
- D. KasiusGroin Injury
- A. NataliNot in squad
- T. ParrottNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Utrecht at 46% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 28%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht Win | 46% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| AZ Alkmaar Win | 28% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Utrecht or Draw at 1.56 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht or Draw | 72% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
| AZ Alkmaar or Draw | 54% | 65% | @ 1.45 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 63% | @ 1.47 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 37% | @ 2.50 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Utrecht or AZ Alkmaar is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht +1.75 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Utrecht +1.5 | 89% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Utrecht +1.25 | 85% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.75 | 80% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Utrecht +1 | 80% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.5 | 77% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Utrecht +0.75 | 76% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| Utrecht +0.5 | 72% | 59% | @ 1.59 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1.25 | 71% | 81% | 1.17 |
| AZ Alkmaar +1 | 66% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Utrecht +0.25 | 65% | 54% | @ 1.78 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.75 | 60% | 71% | 1.33 |
| Utrecht 0 | 59% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.5 | 54% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Utrecht -0.25 | 52% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| AZ Alkmaar +0.25 | 48% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Utrecht -0.5 | 46% | 35% | @ 2.69 |
| AZ Alkmaar 0 | 41% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Utrecht -0.75 | 40% | 29% | @ 3.33 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | 35% | 46% | 2.06 |
| Utrecht -1 | 34% | 21% | @ 4.55 |
| Utrecht -1.25 | 29% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.5 | 28% | 41% | 2.31 |
| AZ Alkmaar -0.75 | 24% | 34% | 2.76 |
| Utrecht -1.5 | 23% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1 | 20% | 27% | 3.58 |
| Utrecht -1.75 | 20% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.25 | 15% | 25% | 3.80 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.5 | 11% | 22% | 4.25 |
| AZ Alkmaar -1.75 | 9% | 17% | 5.50 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model's main pick is Utrecht with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.3 scoreline for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar.
What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Utrecht and 1.34 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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