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⚽ Eredivisie

Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Utrecht vs Willem II in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 10:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Utrecht face Willem II in the Eredivisie, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 10:15 UTC. Recent form: Utrecht have 1 win from their last 5, while Willem II have no wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Utrecht won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 68%, projecting a 2.2-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Utrecht vs Willem II with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Utrecht Win @ 1.50

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.24 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	3.9%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
1	8.3%	8.8%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
2	9.3%	9.8%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%
3	6.9%	7.3%	3.9%	1.4%	0.4%
4	3.9%	4.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Utrecht winDrawWillem II win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Utrecht vs Willem II comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is an Utrecht win at odds 1.50, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Utrecht win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 68%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Utrecht 68%Draw 19%Willem II 12%

68%19%12%

68%

Utrecht Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Utrecht and Willem II. Wins shown from Utrecht’s perspective: Utrecht 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-09	Willem II	2 – 3	Utrecht	W
2024-09-21	Utrecht	3 – 2	Willem II	W

📈 Recent form

Utrecht

Utrecht come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 18. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Excelsior. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Feyenoord.

LFeyenoord 5-0 UtrechtEredivisie
WExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
DUtrecht 3-3 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
DSparta Rotterdam 3-3 UtrechtEredivisie

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

LWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Utrecht at 68% to win and Willem II at 12%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Utrecht Win	68%	63%	@ 1.50
Draw	19%	22%	@ 4.33
Willem II Win	12%	16%	@ 6.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Utrecht or Draw at 1.12 (87% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Utrecht or Draw	87%	84%	@ 1.12
Willem II or Draw	32%	37%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	64%	64%	@ 1.48
Under 3.5	58%	56%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	42%	44%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	36%	36%	@ 2.60
Under 1.5	16%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	41%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Utrecht 63%Draw 21%Willem II 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Utrecht vs Willem II?

Our model's main pick is an Utrecht win at odds 1.50, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 63%.

Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Willem II?

Our model makes an Utrecht win the most likely result at 68%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.1 scoreline for Utrecht vs Willem II.

What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs Willem II?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.24 for Utrecht and 1.06 for Willem II. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Utrecht and Willem II play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 10:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.