⚽ Serie A

Venezia vs Lecce Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Venezia vs Lecce in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Venezia face Lecce in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Lecce won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Venezia win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Venezia vs Lecce with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 2.5 @ 1.65

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.10 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.7%	12.2%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%
1	14.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%
2	7.7%	7.4%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%
3	2.8%	2.7%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Venezia winDrawLecce win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Venezia vs Lecce is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a Venezia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (59%).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 1.65, 66% model probability, +9.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Venezia 35%Draw 33%Lecce 32%

35%33%32%

35%

Venezia Win

66%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

+9.0%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Venezia and Lecce. Wins shown from Venezia’s perspective: 1 drawn · Lecce 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-04-06	Lecce	1 – 1	Venezia	D
2024-11-25	Venezia	0 – 1	Lecce	L

📈 Recent form

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 8-0 at home to Vis Pesaro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 3-4 at Saint Etienne.

WVenezia 3-2 ModenaCoppa Italia
DStade Brestois 29 2-2 VeneziaFriendlies Clubs
LSaint Etienne 4-3 VeneziaFriendlies Clubs
WGalatasaray 0-3 VeneziaFriendlies Clubs
WVenezia 8-0 Vis PesaroFriendlies Clubs

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Bistrica. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Palermo.

LPalermo 2-0 LecceCoppa Italia
WLecce 1-0 SS MonopoliFriendlies Clubs
WLecce 5-2 BistricaFriendlies Clubs
DLecce 2-2 Istra 1961Friendlies Clubs
LLecce 0-1 FC Politehnica TimisoaraFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Venezia

A. AdoranteHernia
M. SverkoHip Injury

Lecce

L. BandaNot in squad
M. BerishaThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Venezia at 35% to win and Lecce at 32%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Venezia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	33%	@ 3.15	+4.8%
Lecce Win	32%	@ 3.10	-1.3%
Venezia Win	35%	@ 2.32	-19.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lecce or Draw at 1.57 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Lecce or Draw	62%	@ 1.57	-3.1%
Venezia or Draw	65%	@ 1.35	-12.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	39%	@ 2.90	+13.1%
Under 2.5	66%	@ 1.65	+9.0%
Under 3.5	85%	@ 1.22	+3.2%
Over 1.5	61%	@ 1.40	-14.6%
Over 2.5	34%	@ 2.20	-25.3%
Over 3.5	15%	@ 4.20	-35.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	59%	@ 1.85	+8.6%
BTTS Yes	41%	@ 1.90	-21.5%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	40%
Dixon-Coles	Home	38%
GradientBoosting	Draw	35%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.33 for the home side, 1.26 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Lecce?

Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 66% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Lecce?

Our model makes a Venezia win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline for Venezia vs Lecce.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Lecce?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Venezia and 0.96 for Lecce. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Venezia and Lecce play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.