Sun 23 Aug0-2Finished

⚽ Serie A

Venezia vs Lecce Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Venezia vs Lecce in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Venezia 0-2 Lecce

Venezia vs Lecce finished 0-2. Lecce won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Venezia face Lecce in the upcoming Serie A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Lecce won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Venezia win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.1-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Venezia vs Lecce with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lecce +1.25 @ 1.25

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.10 – 0.96 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.7%	12.2%	5.9%	1.9%	0.5%
1	14.0%	13.5%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%
2	7.7%	7.4%	3.6%	1.1%	0.3%
3	2.8%	2.7%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Venezia winDrawLecce win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Venezia vs Lecce comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lecce with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Venezia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points no (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Venezia 35%Draw 33%Lecce 32%

35%33%32%

35%

Venezia Win

66%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Venezia and Lecce. Wins shown from Venezia’s perspective: 1 drawn · Lecce 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	Venezia	0 – 2	Lecce	L
2025-04-06	Lecce	1 – 1	Venezia	D
2024-11-25	Venezia	0 – 1	Lecce	L

📈 Recent form

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Lazio.

LVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
LVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
LUdinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
LAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Lecce

Lecce come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at AC Milan.

LAC Milan 3-0 LecceSerie A
WLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
LCagliari 1-0 LecceSerie A
LLecce 0-4 AS RomaSerie A
WVenezia 0-2 LecceSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Venezia

A. AdoranteHernia
A. DuncanInjury
M. MorenoHealth problems
M. SverkoHip Injury

Lecce

L. BandaNot in squad
M. BerishaThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Venezia at 35% to win and Lecce at 32%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Venezia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Venezia Win	35%	42%	@ 2.20
Draw	33%	31%	@ 3.05
Lecce Win	32%	27%	@ 3.45

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Venezia or Draw at 1.29 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Venezia or Draw	65%	73%	@ 1.29
Lecce or Draw	62%	58%	@ 1.64

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	85%	78%	@ 1.21
Under 2.5	66%	58%	@ 1.62
Over 1.5	61%	67%	@ 1.40
Under 1.5	39%	33%	@ 2.90
Over 2.5	34%	42%	@ 2.28
Over 3.5	15%	22%	@ 4.25

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	59%	51%	@ 1.84
BTTS Yes	41%	49%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Venezia or Lecce is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lecce +1.75	86%	84%	1.13
Venezia +1.5	85%	88%	1.07
Lecce +1.5	83%	78%	1.20
Lecce +1.25	77%	76%	1.25
Venezia +1	75%	86%	1.10
Lecce +1	72%	73%	1.31
Venezia +0.75	70%	–	1.20
Lecce +0.75	67%	64%	@ 1.50
Venezia +0.5	65%	–	1.29
Lecce +0.5	62%	56%	@ 1.69
Venezia +0.25	58%	69%	1.39
Lecce +0.25	55%	48%	@ 2.00
Venezia 0	52%	62%	1.53
Lecce 0	48%	38%	@ 2.53
Venezia -0.25	45%	52%	1.88
Lecce -0.25	42%	31%	@ 3.10
Venezia -0.5	38%	44%	2.17
Venezia -0.75	33%	36%	2.62
Venezia -1	28%	27%	3.50
Lecce -1	25%	14%	@ 7.00
Venezia -1.25	23%	24%	3.98
Venezia -1.5	17%	22%	4.30
Lecce -1.5	15%	12%	@ 7.50
Venezia -1.75	14%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Venezia 43%Draw 31%Lecce 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Lecce?

Our model's main pick is Lecce with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Lecce?

Our model makes a Venezia win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.0 scoreline for Venezia vs Lecce.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Lecce?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Venezia and 0.96 for Lecce. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Venezia and Lecce play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.