Sat 17 Oct13:00Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

Venezia vs Napoli Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Venezia vs Napoli in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Venezia face Napoli in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Venezia have no wins from their last 5, while Napoli have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Napoli won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 68%, projecting a 0.8-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Venezia vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.79 – 2.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	11.9%	12.3%	8.4%	4.3%
1	4.6%	9.4%	9.7%	6.7%	3.4%
2	1.8%	3.7%	3.8%	2.6%	1.4%
3	0.5%	1.0%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-2

Venezia winDrawNapoli win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Venezia vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 68%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Venezia 14%Draw 19%Napoli 68%

14%19%68%

68%

Napoli Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Venezia and Napoli. Wins shown from Venezia’s perspective: 1 drawn · Napoli 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-16	Venezia	0 – 0	Napoli	D
2024-12-29	Napoli	1 – 0	Venezia	L

📈 Recent form

Venezia

Venezia come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Lazio.

LVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
LVenezia 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
LFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
LUdinese 2-1 VeneziaCoppa Italia
LAC Milan 2-0 VeneziaSerie A

Napoli

Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Frosinone. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

WNapoli 3-0 FrosinoneSerie A
DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Venezia

A. AdoranteInguinal Hernia
M. ŠverkoHip Injury

Napoli

A. BuongiornoJumpers Knee

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Venezia at 14% to win and Napoli at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Napoli Win	68%	55%	@ 1.70
Draw	19%	25%	@ 3.75
Venezia Win	14%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.18 (87% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Napoli or Draw	87%	80%	@ 1.18
Venezia or Draw	33%	45%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	68%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	54%	57%	@ 1.67
Under 2.5	46%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 3.5	32%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	22%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	45%	@ 2.05
BTTS Yes	46%	55%	@ 1.70

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Venezia vs Napoli?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Venezia vs Napoli?

Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 68%. It projects an expected 0.8-2.1 scoreline for Venezia vs Napoli.

What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Napoli?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.79 for Venezia and 2.06 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Venezia and Napoli play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.