⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitoria vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vitoria face Bahia in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Bahia won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitoria win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitoria vs Bahia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

74%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.38 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	9.0%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
1	10.0%	12.5%	7.7%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.9%	8.6%	5.3%	2.2%	0.7%
3	3.2%	4.0%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitoria winDrawBahia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitoria vs Bahia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Vitoria win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.33, 74% model probability, -2.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Vitoria 37%Draw 32%Bahia 31%

37%32%31%

37%

Vitoria Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-2.1%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Vitoria and Bahia. Wins shown from Vitoria’s perspective: 1 drawn · Bahia 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-08-11	Bahia	2 – 0	Vitoria	L
2024-04-21	Vitoria	2 – 2	Bahia	D

📈 Recent form

Vitoria

Vitoria come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Atletico Paranaense. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Flamengo.

WVitoria 1-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 2-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
WVitoria 4-0 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
LRemo 2-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 VitoriaBrazilian Série A

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 1 win and 4 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Chapecoense-sc.

DChapecoense-sc 3-3 BahiaBrazilian Série A
DBahia 0-0 Vasco DA GamaBrazilian Série A
DBahia 1-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DAtletico-MG 1-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 2-0 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitoria

AndersonKnee Injury
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
R. RamosKnee Injury
RiccieliCalf Injury

Bahia

Everton RibeiroNot in squad
Leo VieiraKnee Injury
AdemirInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitoria at 37% to win and Bahia at 31%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Vitoria win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	32%	@ 3.20	+1.9%
Vitoria Win	37%	@ 2.56	-4.2%
Bahia Win	31%	@ 2.70	-17.1%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitoria or Draw at 1.44 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Vitoria or Draw	66%	@ 1.44	-4.2%
Bahia or Draw	60%	@ 1.48	-11.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 1.5	74%	@ 1.33	-2.1%
Under 3.5	73%	@ 1.30	-4.9%
Over 2.5	49%	@ 1.95	-5.1%
Under 2.5	51%	@ 1.83	-6.0%
Over 3.5	27%	@ 3.45	-7.4%
Under 1.5	26%	@ 3.25	-14.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	47%	@ 2.05	-4.2%
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.70	-9.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
Dixon-Coles	Away	40%
GradientBoosting	Home	36%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.37 for the home side, 1.23 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Bahia?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with 74% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Bahia?

Our model makes a Vitoria win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Vitoria vs Bahia.

What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Bahia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.38 for Vitoria and 1.24 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitoria and Bahia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.