⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitoria vs Botafogo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitoria vs Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Result: Vitoria 1-0 Botafogo

Vitoria vs Botafogo finished 1-0. Vitoria won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Vitoria face Botafogo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Vitoria won 1, Botafogo won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitoria vs Botafogo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo +1 @ 1.27

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.11 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	11.4%	7.9%	3.7%	1.3%
1	9.1%	12.7%	8.8%	4.1%	1.4%
2	5.1%	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	0.8%
3	1.9%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitoria winDrawBotafogo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitoria vs Botafogo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Botafogo with a +1 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Botafogo to win by 0+ goals at odds 2.69 (+40.6% model value).

Best value

Botafogo -0.25 at odds 2.69, 52% model probability, +40.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Vitoria 25%Draw 33%Botafogo 42%

25%33%42%

42%

Botafogo Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

+40.6%

Best value: Botafogo -0.25

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Vitoria and Botafogo. Wins shown from Vitoria’s perspective: Vitoria 1 · 2 drawn · Botafogo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Vitoria	1 – 0	Botafogo	W
2026-07-23	Botafogo	0 – 0	Vitoria	D
2024-11-23	Botafogo	1 – 1	Vitoria	D
2024-07-12	Vitoria	0 – 1	Botafogo	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitoria at 25% to win and Botafogo at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo Win	42%	@ 3.12	+30.8%
Draw	33%	@ 3.21	+6.8%
Vitoria Win	25%	@ 2.31	-42.8%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.59 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo or Draw	72%	@ 1.59	+13.5%
Vitoria or Draw	54%	@ 1.35	-26.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	54%	@ 1.83	-0.2%
Under 1.5	29%	@ 3.46	-0.7%
Under 3.5	76%	@ 1.31	-0.8%
Over 1.5	71%	@ 1.31	-6.8%
Over 2.5	46%	@ 1.97	-10.0%
Over 3.5	24%	@ 3.41	-17.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	49%	@ 2.03	-0.5%
BTTS Yes	51%	@ 1.72	-12.4%

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitoria or Botafogo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Botafogo -1	34%	@ 5.75	+96.8%
Botafogo -1.25	28%	@ 6.25	+77.9%
Botafogo -0.75	40%	@ 3.99	+59.5%
Botafogo -1.5	23%	@ 6.60	+50.0%
Botafogo -0.5	46%	@ 3.13	+43.1%
Botafogo -0.25	52%	@ 2.69	+40.6%
Botafogo 0	59%	@ 2.25	+31.5%
Botafogo +0.25	65%	@ 1.83	+19.3%
Botafogo +0.5	72%	@ 1.61	+14.9%
Botafogo +0.75	76%	@ 1.45	+9.5%
Botafogo +1.5	89%	@ 1.20	+6.5%
Botafogo +1.25	84%	@ 1.23	+3.5%
Botafogo +1.75	91%	@ 1.13	+2.5%
Botafogo +1	80%	@ 1.27	+1.8%
Vitoria +1.5	77%	1.11	-14.2%
Vitoria +1.25	72%	1.12	-19.9%
Vitoria +0.75	60%	1.25	-25.0%
Vitoria +1	66%	1.14	-25.0%
Vitoria +0.5	54%	1.37	-25.6%
Vitoria -0.25	35%	2.03	-29.0%
Vitoria +0.25	48%	1.48	-29.4%
Vitoria 0	41%	1.64	-32.1%
Vitoria -0.75	24%	2.79	-32.5%
Vitoria -0.5	28%	2.25	-35.7%
Vitoria -1.75	9%	5.90	-45.3%
Vitoria -1.5	11%	4.40	-50.6%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitoria vs Botafogo?

Our main pick is Botafogo with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Botafogo to win by 0+ goals at 2.69 (+40.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Vitoria vs Botafogo?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline for Vitoria vs Botafogo.

What is the predicted score for Vitoria vs Botafogo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.11 for Vitoria and 1.39 for Botafogo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitoria and Botafogo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.