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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitória vs Chapecoense Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vitória face Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:00 UTC. Recent form: Vitória have 1 win from their last 5, while Chapecoense have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.6-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.55 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	7.8%	4.1%	1.4%	0.4%
1	11.6%	12.1%	6.3%	2.2%	0.6%
2	9.0%	9.4%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
3	4.7%	4.8%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.9%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória winDrawChapecoense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória 52%Draw 27%Chapecoense 22%

52%27%22%

52%

Vitória Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Vitória

Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro.

LVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LVitória 0-2 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A

Chapecoense

Chapecoense come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.

DAtletico Nacional 1-1 ChapecoenseFriendlies Clubs
DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitória

BaralhasBroken Leg
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
FabianoKnee Injury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
RamonLeg Injury
RiccieliCalf Injury

Chapecoense

Bruno TubaraoHamstring Injury
HeitorHamstring Injury
Max AlvesBack Injury
Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
Vinicius BalieiroKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória at 52% to win and Chapecoense at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória Win	52%	57%	@ 1.67
Draw	27%	25%	@ 3.80
Chapecoense Win	22%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória or Draw at 1.17 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória or Draw	77%	82%	@ 1.17
Chapecoense or Draw	47%	43%	@ 2.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	52%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 2.5	48%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	48%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Vitória 57%Draw 25%Chapecoense 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	51%
Dixon-Coles	Home	46%
GradientBoosting	Home	54%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.67 for the home side, 1.01 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Chapecoense?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Chapecoense?

Our model makes a Vitória win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.0 scoreline for Vitória vs Chapecoense.

What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Chapecoense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.55 for Vitória and 1.04 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória and Chapecoense play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 07 October 2026, 23:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.