⚽ Eredivisie

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Willem II face NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Willem II won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.2-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

66%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 2.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	7.1%	7.8%	5.6%	3.1%
1	4.1%	8.8%	9.6%	7.0%	3.8%
2	2.5%	5.5%	6.0%	4.3%	2.4%
3	1.0%	2.3%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-2

Willem II winDrawNEC Nijmegen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, the selection our model is most confident in at 66%. On the match result, the model rates a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.80, 55% model probability, -0.3% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Willem II 16%Draw 32%NEC Nijmegen 52%

16%32%52%

52%

NEC Nijmegen Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

-0.3%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen. Wins shown from Willem II’s perspective: Willem II 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-05-03	NEC Nijmegen	1 – 1	Willem II	D
2024-12-22	Willem II	4 – 1	NEC Nijmegen	W

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Willem II at 16% to win and NEC Nijmegen at 52%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	32%	@ 4.65	+48.2%
Willem II Win	16%	@ 5.50	-11.7%
NEC Nijmegen Win	52%	@ 1.49	-22.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Willem II or Draw at 2.55 (44% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Willem II or Draw	44%	@ 2.55	+11.4%
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	80%	@ 1.14	-9.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	55%	@ 1.80	-0.3%
Under 2.5	34%	@ 2.90	-2.6%
Over 1.5	86%	@ 1.11	-5.1%
Over 2.5	66%	@ 1.40	-7.0%
Under 1.5	14%	@ 6.25	-9.6%
Over 3.5	45%	@ 2.00	-10.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.48	-6.5%
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.45	-9.7%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	51%
Dixon-Coles	Away	64%
GradientBoosting	Away	48%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 0.95 for the home side, 1.76 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with 66% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen.

What is the predicted score for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Willem II and 2.18 for NEC Nijmegen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Willem II and NEC Nijmegen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.