Sat 15 Aug1-4Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

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Result: Willem II 1-4 NEC Nijmegen

Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen finished 1-4. NEC Nijmegen won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Willem II face NEC Nijmegen in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Willem II won 1, NEC Nijmegen won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.2-2.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Willem II +2 @ 1.27

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.24 – 2.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	7.1%	7.8%	5.6%	3.1%
1	4.1%	8.8%	9.6%	7.0%	3.8%
2	2.5%	5.5%	6.0%	4.3%	2.4%
3	1.0%	2.3%	2.5%	1.8%	1.0%
4	0.3%	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-2

Willem II winDrawNEC Nijmegen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Willem II with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Willem II 16%Draw 32%NEC Nijmegen 52%

16%32%52%

52%

NEC Nijmegen Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Willem II and NEC Nijmegen. Wins shown from Willem II’s perspective: Willem II 1 · 1 drawn · NEC Nijmegen 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-15	Willem II	1 – 4	NEC Nijmegen	L
2025-05-03	NEC Nijmegen	1 – 1	Willem II	D
2024-12-22	Willem II	4 – 1	NEC Nijmegen	W

📈 Recent form

Willem II

Willem II come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Fortuna Sittard.

LWillem II 0-1 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
LAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
LWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at PEC Zwolle. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Juventus.

DNEC Nijmegen 1-1 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie
LJuventus 5-0 NEC NijmegenUEFA Europa League
LCambuur 3-0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
LNEC Nijmegen 1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
WPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Willem II

A. CulumFoot Injury
T. Didillon HodlHamstring Injury
A. LachkarGroin Injury
J. SchuurmanKnock
A. ZarroukSurgery

NEC Nijmegen

Y. MoslihInjury
K. OgawaHead Injury
S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
P. SandlerInjury
P. SchuursKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Willem II at 16% to win and NEC Nijmegen at 52%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen Win	52%	60%	@ 1.57
Draw	32%	22%	@ 4.25
Willem II Win	16%	18%	@ 5.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is NEC Nijmegen or Draw at 1.16 (80% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	80%	82%	@ 1.16
Willem II or Draw	44%	40%	@ 2.33

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	66%	66%	@ 1.42
Under 3.5	55%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	45%	46%	@ 2.07
Under 2.5	34%	34%	@ 2.80
Under 1.5	14%	15%	@ 6.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	64%	@ 1.46
BTTS No	37%	36%	@ 2.55

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Willem II or NEC Nijmegen is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
NEC Nijmegen +0.75	83%	83%	1.14
NEC Nijmegen +0.5	80%	78%	1.21
Willem II +2	77%	75%	1.27
NEC Nijmegen +0.25	74%	76%	1.24
Willem II +1.75	73%	68%	@ 1.41
Willem II +1.5	68%	62%	@ 1.52
NEC Nijmegen 0	68%	74%	1.28
NEC Nijmegen -0.25	62%	66%	1.44
Willem II +1.25	62%	57%	@ 1.67
NEC Nijmegen -0.5	56%	59%	1.58
Willem II +1	56%	52%	@ 1.83
NEC Nijmegen -0.75	50%	55%	1.75
Willem II +0.75	50%	45%	@ 2.10
NEC Nijmegen -1	44%	48%	1.98
Willem II +0.5	44%	41%	@ 2.32
Willem II +0.25	38%	34%	@ 2.80
NEC Nijmegen -1.25	38%	43%	2.25
Willem II 0	32%	26%	@ 3.67
NEC Nijmegen -1.5	32%	38%	2.44
NEC Nijmegen -1.75	27%	32%	2.94
Willem II -0.25	26%	24%	@ 3.90
NEC Nijmegen -2	23%	25%	3.80
Willem II -0.5	20%	22%	4.25
Willem II -0.75	17%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Willem II 20%Draw 21%NEC Nijmegen 59%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our model's main pick is Willem II with a +2 start at odds 1.27, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

Our model makes a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.2 scoreline for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen.

What is the predicted score for Willem II vs NEC Nijmegen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Willem II and 2.18 for NEC Nijmegen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Willem II and NEC Nijmegen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.