Sat 7 Nov18:00Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alverca vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alverca face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Alverca have 3 wins from their last 5, while Casa Pia have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Alverca won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alverca vs Casa Pia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.42 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.4%	8.9%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%
1	11.9%	12.6%	6.7%	2.4%	0.6%
2	8.4%	8.9%	4.7%	1.7%	0.4%
3	4.0%	4.2%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alverca winDrawCasa Pia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Alverca win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Alverca 42%Draw 32%Casa Pia 26%

42%32%26%

42%

Alverca Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Alverca and Casa Pia. Wins shown from Alverca’s perspective: Alverca 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Alverca	3 – 1	Casa Pia	W
2025-11-29	Casa Pia	0 – 2	Alverca	W

📈 Recent form

Alverca

Alverca come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Famalicão. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Benfica.

LBenfica 1-0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
LAlverca 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
DTondela 0-0 AlvercaTaça de Portugal
WFamalicão 1-4 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
WAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Estrela da Amadora. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Sporting CP.

LCasa Pia 0-2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
WEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
WAlpendorada 0-1 Casa PiaTaça de Portugal
LCasa Pia 0-1 Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Casa Pia 4-2-3-1

1Sequeira

18Geraldes

3Kaly

43Sousa

75Rosas

24Pérez

80Ofori

11El Boukammiri

70Rêgo

77Pauwels

9Araújo

22Figueiredo

19Camara

10Chiquinho

55Chissumba

6Gui

25Luccas

2Zoubdi

12James

21Gómez

4Bojang

31Mendes

Alverca 3-4-3

Casa Pia

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Sporting CP, 30/10

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Filipe Coelho

Bench last match19Prieto90Cassiano16Silvi59Dafe44Silva8Pereira4Goulart20Jatta98JP29Livolant95Mandić17Maurin

Alverca

Last starting XI (3-4-3) vs Benfica, 02/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Sérgio Ferreira

Bench last match18Kassary93Rafael3Martínez26França8Moreira11Nuozzi23Paulo9Semedo20Marques27Tamarit24Jemide17Merheg

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alverca at 42% to win and Casa Pia at 26%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alverca Win	42%	54%	@ 1.75
Draw	32%	25%	@ 3.80
Casa Pia Win	26%	22%	@ 4.33

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Alverca or Draw at 1.20 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Alverca or Draw	71%	78%	@ 1.20
Casa Pia or Draw	55%	46%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	71%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	55%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	45%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	29%	27%	@ 3.50
Over 3.5	24%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	50%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	48%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 How the market moved

Alverca 53%Draw 25%Casa Pia 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes an Alverca win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Alverca vs Casa Pia.

What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for Alverca and 1.06 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alverca and Casa Pia play?

Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.