⚽ UEFA Champions League
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Result: Atlético Madrid 0-2 Bayern Munich
Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich finished 0-2. Bayern Munich won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, did not land.
Atlético Madrid face Bayern Munich in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Atlético Madrid have 1 win from their last 3, while Bayern Munich have 1 win from their last 3. The bookmaker market makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 41%, implying a 1.6-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayern Munich win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (76%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Levante. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Bayern Munich.
- LAtlético Madrid 0-2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- WLevante 0-2 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La CoruñaLa Liga
- DVfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- WEspanyol 0-1 Atlético MadridLa Liga
Bayern Munich come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at home to 1. FC Magdeburg. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAtlético Madrid 0-2 Bayern MunichUEFA Champions League
- DBayern Munich 2-2 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
- WBayern Munich 6-1 1. FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal
- WSC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern MunichBundesliga
- DBayern Munich 2-2 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. CardosoThigh Injury
- M. HjulmandSuspended (red card)
- L. DiazMuscle Injury
- S. GnabryMuscle Injury
- J. MusialaMuscle Injury
- I. SaibariAnkle Injury
🧩 Line-ups
Bayern München
Coach: V. Kompany
Atletico Madrid
Coach: D. Simeone
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlético Madrid at 35% to win and Bayern Munich at 46%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich Win | 46% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Atlético Madrid Win | 35% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Draw | 19% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayern Munich or Draw at 1.50 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich or Draw | 69% | 65% | @ 1.50 |
| Atlético Madrid or Draw | 58% | 59% | @ 1.53 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 | 41% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 76%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 76% | 66% | @ 1.40 |
| BTTS No | 24% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Madrid or Bayern Munich is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich +1.75 | 89% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Bayern Munich +1.5 | 87% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.75 | 83% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Bayern Munich +1.25 | 82% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.5 | 80% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Bayern Munich +1 | 78% | – | 1.23 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.25 | 74% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Bayern Munich +0.75 | 73% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Atlético Madrid +1 | 69% | 72% | 1.31 |
| Bayern Munich +0.5 | 69% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.75 | 63% | 65% | 1.46 |
| Bayern Munich +0.25 | 62% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.5 | 58% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Bayern Munich 0 | 56% | 53% | @ 1.81 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.25 | 51% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Bayern Munich -0.25 | 49% | 46% | @ 2.08 |
| Atlético Madrid 0 | 44% | 47% | 2.07 |
| Bayern Munich -0.5 | 42% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 38% | 41% | 2.35 |
| Bayern Munich -0.75 | 37% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.5 | 31% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Bayern Munich -1 | 31% | 28% | @ 3.46 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.75 | 27% | 30% | 3.19 |
| Bayern Munich -1.25 | 26% | 25% | 3.70 |
| Bayern Munich -1.5 | 20% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.25 | 18% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Bayern Munich -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.5 | 13% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.75 | 11% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.
Who is the favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
Our model makes a Bayern Munich win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.8 scoreline for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.63 for Atlético Madrid and 1.77 for Bayern Munich. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlético Madrid and Bayern Munich play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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