⚽ Championship
Birmingham vs Millwall Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs Millwall in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Result: Birmingham 3-0 Millwall
Birmingham vs Millwall finished 3-0. Birmingham won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
Birmingham face Millwall in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 3 wins from their last 5, while Millwall have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Birmingham won 1, Millwall won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs Millwall with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Birmingham vs Millwall comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Birmingham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (52%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and Millwall. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: Birmingham 1 · 1 drawn · Millwall 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | Birmingham | 3 – 0 | Millwall | W |
| 2024-03-09 | Millwall | 1 – 0 | Birmingham | L |
| 2023-09-02 | Birmingham | 1 – 1 | Millwall | D |
📈 Recent form
Birmingham come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Preston. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Cardiff.
- WBirmingham 3-0 MillwallChampionship
- WLincoln 1-3 BirminghamChampionship
- LCardiff 1-0 BirminghamChampionship
- WBirmingham 3-0 QPRChampionship
- WBirmingham 4-0 PrestonChampionship
Millwall come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Derby. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Birmingham.
- LBirmingham 3-0 MillwallChampionship
- WMillwall 4-1 DerbyChampionship
- LPortsmouth 2-1 MillwallChampionship
- DMillwall 2-2 LincolnChampionship
- LMillwall 0-1 SwanseaChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
- K. LundNot in squad
- Paik Seung-HoHealth problems
- J. BeadleNot in squad
- D. FryNot in squad
- C. De NorreMuscle Injury
- L. JensenMuscle Injury
- F. MarschallInjury
- J. MetcalfeSuspended (cards)
- M. ServaisNot in squad
- T. ArconteAnkle Injury
- M. LuongoKnee Injury
🧩 Line-ups
Millwall
Coach: A. Neil
Birmingham
Coach: C. Davies
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Birmingham at 39% to win and Millwall at 29%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Win | 39% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
| Millwall Win | 29% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Birmingham or Draw at 1.28 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham or Draw | 68% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Millwall or Draw | 58% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Under 1.5 | 30% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 52% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| BTTS Yes | 48% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Birmingham or Millwall is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall +2 | 86% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Millwall +1.75 | 83% | 77% | @ 1.22 |
| Millwall +1.5 | 80% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Birmingham +1 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Millwall +1.25 | 75% | 70% | @ 1.37 |
| Birmingham +0.75 | 73% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Millwall +1 | 69% | 65% | @ 1.47 |
| Birmingham +0.5 | 68% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Millwall +0.75 | 64% | 57% | @ 1.68 |
| Birmingham +0.25 | 62% | 71% | 1.34 |
| Millwall +0.5 | 58% | 51% | @ 1.90 |
| Birmingham 0 | 55% | 66% | 1.44 |
| Millwall +0.25 | 52% | 44% | @ 2.19 |
| Birmingham -0.25 | 48% | 56% | 1.69 |
| Millwall 0 | 45% | 34% | @ 2.83 |
| Birmingham -0.5 | 42% | 49% | 1.98 |
| Millwall -0.25 | 38% | 29% | @ 3.27 |
| Birmingham -0.75 | 36% | 43% | 2.23 |
| Millwall -0.5 | 32% | 26% | @ 3.71 |
| Birmingham -1 | 31% | 35% | 2.73 |
| Millwall -0.75 | 27% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Birmingham -1.25 | 25% | 30% | 3.13 |
| Millwall -1 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Birmingham -1.5 | 20% | 27% | 3.56 |
| Birmingham -1.75 | 17% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Birmingham -2 | 14% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.
Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Birmingham vs Millwall.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Millwall?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.45 for Birmingham and 1.00 for Millwall. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Birmingham and Millwall play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 03 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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