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⚽ Championship

Birmingham vs Swansea Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Birmingham vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Birmingham face Swansea in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC. Recent form: Birmingham have 4 wins from their last 5, while Swansea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Birmingham won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Birmingham vs Swansea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

70%Bookmaker odds imply 70%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.48 – 1.06 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	8.4%	4.4%	1.6%	0.4%
1	11.7%	12.4%	6.6%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.6%	9.2%	4.9%	1.7%	0.5%
3	4.3%	4.5%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.6%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Birmingham winDrawSwansea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Birmingham vs Swansea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Birmingham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Birmingham 38%Draw 31%Swansea 31%

38%31%31%

38%

Birmingham Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Birmingham and Swansea. Wins shown from Birmingham’s perspective: Birmingham 1 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-08	Swansea	0 – 1	Birmingham	W
2024-01-13	Birmingham	2 – 2	Swansea	D
2023-08-05	Swansea	1 – 1	Birmingham	D

📈 Recent form

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Preston. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Cardiff.

WBirmingham 3-0 MillwallChampionship
WLincoln 1-3 BirminghamChampionship
LCardiff 1-0 BirminghamChampionship
WBirmingham 3-0 QPRChampionship
WBirmingham 4-0 PrestonChampionship

Swansea

Swansea come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Blackburn. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Portsmouth.

LPortsmouth 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
WSwansea 4-0 BlackburnChampionship
LQPR 5-0 SwanseaChampionship
LSwansea 0-1 West HamChampionship
WMillwall 0-1 SwanseaChampionship

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Swansea 4-3-3

22Vigouroux

26Lissah

3Seelt

23Welsh

14Tymon

17Franco

4Fulton

6Stamenić

30Okopu

33Idah

7Widell

18Bird

17Millar

28Stansfield

16Roberts

14Solis

24Iwata

20Cochrane

4Klarer

5Neumann

2Laird

21Allsop

Birmingham 4-2-3-1

Swansea

Last starting XI (4-3-3) vs Portsmouth, 03/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Vítor Matos

Bench last match5Cabango1Fisher16Iorpenda8Just2Key12Monga31Stewart9Vipotnik44Woodward

Birmingham

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Millwall, 03/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: C. Davies

Bench last match3Buchanan33Ducksch19Gardner-Hickman10Gray30Mayo26Osayi-Samuel32Vázquez7Vicente11Wright

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Birmingham at 38% to win and Swansea at 31%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham Win	38%	51%	@ 1.83
Draw	31%	26%	@ 3.60
Swansea Win	31%	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Birmingham or Draw at 1.22 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Birmingham or Draw	67%	78%	@ 1.22
Swansea or Draw	60%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	72%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	53%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	47%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	28%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	25%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	54%	@ 1.73
BTTS No	49%	46%	@ 2.00

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Swansea?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Swansea?

Our model makes a Birmingham win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Birmingham vs Swansea.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Swansea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for Birmingham and 1.06 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Birmingham and Swansea play?

Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.