Fri 18 Sep3-0Finished

⚽ Premier League

Brentford vs Chelsea Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Brentford vs Chelsea in the Premier League. Kick-off Friday 18 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Brentford 3-0 Chelsea

Brentford vs Chelsea finished 3-0. Brentford won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, Brentford or Draw at 1.62, landed.

Brentford face Chelsea in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Friday 18 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Brentford have 1 win from their last 4, while Chelsea have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Brentford won 1, Chelsea won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Brentford win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.8-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Brentford vs Chelsea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Brentford +1.25 @ 1.25

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.76 – 1.66 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	5.4%	4.5%	2.5%	1.0%
1	5.8%	9.6%	7.9%	4.4%	1.8%
2	5.1%	8.4%	7.0%	3.9%	1.6%
3	3.0%	4.9%	4.1%	2.3%	0.9%
4	1.3%	2.2%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Brentford winDrawChelsea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Brentford with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Brentford win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

Brentford 42%Draw 27%Chelsea 31%

42%27%31%

42%

Brentford Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Brentford and Chelsea. Wins shown from Brentford’s perspective: Brentford 1 · 2 drawn · Chelsea 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-18	Brentford	3 – 0	Chelsea	W
2026-01-17	Chelsea	2 – 0	Brentford	L
2025-09-13	Brentford	2 – 2	Chelsea	D
2025-04-06	Brentford	0 – 0	Chelsea	D
2024-12-15	Chelsea	2 – 1	Brentford	L

📈 Recent form

Brentford

Brentford come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Chelsea. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
WReading 1-2 BrentfordLeague Cup
DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
DBrentford 1-1 SunderlandPremier League
DLeeds 1-1 BrentfordPremier League

Chelsea

Chelsea come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at home to Leeds. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Brentford.

LBrentford 3-0 ChelseaPremier League
DChelsea 2-2 Hull CityPremier League
WChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
LArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League
WChelsea 4-3 BrightonPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Brentford

N. CollinsInjury
J. DasilvaInjury
K. FuroSurgery
M. JensenMuscle Injury
S. van den BergInjury

Chelsea

M. CaicedoInjury
E. EmeghaInjury
Joao PedroInjury
M. PalestraInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Brentford at 42% to win and Chelsea at 31%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Brentford win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brentford Win	42%	34%	@ 2.80
Chelsea Win	31%	40%	@ 2.35
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Brentford or Draw at 1.53 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brentford or Draw	68%	60%	@ 1.53
Chelsea or Draw	58%	66%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	66%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 3.5	55%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	45%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 2.5	34%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	14%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	32%	34%	@ 2.75

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Brentford or Chelsea is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Brentford +2	91%	86%	@ 1.10
Brentford +1.75	89%	83%	@ 1.14
Brentford +1.5	87%	78%	@ 1.21
Chelsea +1.75	83%	85%	1.12
Brentford +1.25	82%	76%	@ 1.25
Chelsea +1.5	80%	81%	1.17
Brentford +1	78%	73%	@ 1.29
Chelsea +1.25	74%	79%	1.19
Brentford +0.75	73%	66%	@ 1.45
Chelsea +1	69%	78%	1.23
Brentford +0.5	68%	60%	@ 1.60
Chelsea +0.75	63%	71%	1.33
Brentford +0.25	62%	54%	@ 1.76
Chelsea +0.5	58%	65%	1.47
Brentford 0	55%	46%	@ 2.08
Chelsea +0.25	51%	60%	1.59
Brentford -0.25	49%	40%	@ 2.40
Chelsea 0	45%	54%	1.80
Brentford -0.5	42%	35%	@ 2.73
Chelsea -0.25	38%	46%	2.10
Brentford -0.75	37%	29%	@ 3.33
Chelsea -0.5	32%	40%	2.38
Brentford -1	31%	22%	@ 4.33
Chelsea -0.75	27%	34%	2.79
Brentford -1.25	26%	21%	@ 4.50
Chelsea -1	22%	27%	3.58
Brentford -1.5	20%	19%	5.00
Chelsea -1.25	18%	24%	3.96
Brentford -1.75	17%	15%	@ 6.40
Chelsea -1.5	13%	22%	4.25
Chelsea -1.75	11%	17%	5.75
Chelsea -2	9%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Brentford 34%Draw 25%Chelsea 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Brentford vs Chelsea?

Our model's main pick is Brentford with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Brentford vs Chelsea?

Our model makes a Brentford win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.7 scoreline for Brentford vs Chelsea.

What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Chelsea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.76 for Brentford and 1.66 for Chelsea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Brentford and Chelsea play?

Kick-off is Friday 18 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.