Sat 19 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Burnley vs Derby Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Burnley vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Burnley 1-1 Derby

Burnley vs Derby finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.40, landed.

Burnley face Derby in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Burnley have 0 wins from their last 5, while Derby have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 1.7-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Burnley vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley +0.25 @ 1.26

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.67 – 0.89 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	6.9%	3.1%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.9%	11.5%	5.1%	1.5%	0.3%
2	10.8%	9.6%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.0%	5.3%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.5%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Burnley winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Burnley vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Burnley 62%Draw 22%Derby 16%

62%22%16%

62%

Burnley Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Burnley and Derby. Wins shown from Burnley’s perspective: 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Burnley	1 – 1	Derby	D
2025-04-08	Derby	0 – 0	Burnley	D
2024-12-10	Burnley	0 – 0	Derby	D

📈 Recent form

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

Derby

Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Burnley

E. AgyeiInjury
J. BanelInjury
A. BarnesInjury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury
B. HumphreysNot in squad
H. MejbriNot in squad
A. RamseyHamstring Injury

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
F. BilbijaBack Injury
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
H. MeisterInjury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
J. Widell ZetterstromKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Burnley at 62% to win and Derby at 16%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	62%	54%	@ 1.75
Draw	22%	25%	@ 3.70
Derby Win	16%	21%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.20 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	84%	79%	@ 1.20
Derby or Draw	38%	46%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	72%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	53%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	47%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	28%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	46%	@ 2.00
BTTS Yes	48%	54%	@ 1.73

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Burnley or Derby is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley +0.75	86%	83%	1.14
Burnley +0.5	84%	78%	@ 1.22
Burnley +0.25	78%	75%	1.26
Burnley 0	73%	72%	1.33
Derby +2	72%	83%	1.15
Burnley -0.25	68%	61%	@ 1.55
Derby +1.75	67%	75%	1.26
Derby +1.5	62%	69%	1.38
Burnley -0.5	62%	54%	@ 1.76
Derby +1.25	56%	65%	1.46
Burnley -0.75	56%	48%	@ 2.02
Burnley -1	50%	40%	@ 2.39
Derby +1	50%	60%	1.59
Burnley -1.25	44%	35%	@ 2.75
Derby +0.75	44%	52%	1.84
Burnley -1.5	38%	31%	@ 3.09
Derby +0.5	38%	46%	2.08
Burnley -1.75	33%	25%	@ 3.85
Derby +0.25	32%	39%	2.46
Burnley -2	28%	17%	@ 5.50
Derby 0	27%	28%	3.36
Derby -0.25	22%	25%	3.83
Derby -0.5	16%	22%	4.27
Derby -0.75	14%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Burnley 54%Draw 25%Derby 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burnley vs Derby?

Our model's main pick is Burnley with a +0.25 start at odds 1.26, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Derby?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.9 scoreline for Burnley vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.67 for Burnley and 0.89 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Burnley and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.