⚽ Championship
Derby vs Bolton Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Bolton in the Championship. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Derby face Bolton in the Championship, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: Derby have no wins from their last 5, while Bolton have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Bolton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 12.0% | 8.3% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Derby vs Bolton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (56%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Derby come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Norwich.
- LDerby 0-4 NorwichChampionship
- LMillwall 4-1 DerbyChampionship
- DSheffield Utd 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship
Bolton come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Wolves. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Bristol City.
- WCharlton 0-1 BoltonChampionship
- LBolton 2-3 Bristol CityChampionship
- LBolton 1-5 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- DSouthampton 0-0 BoltonChampionship
- WWolves 1-3 BoltonChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- E. CashinNot in squad
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- S. LangasInjury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- C. TaylorInjury
- J. WardNot in squad
- E. ErhahonThigh Injury
- R. HardieHamstring Injury
- J. McAteeKnee Injury
- J. NelsonNot in squad
- E. ToalNot in squad
- G. BazunuNot in squad
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Bolton
Coach: S. Schumacher
Derby
Coach: J. Eustace
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Derby at 37% to win and Bolton at 34%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby Win | 37% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Bolton Win | 34% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.44 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby or Draw | 65% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Bolton or Draw | 61% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 44% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
📈 How the market moved
🔬 What our models say about this match
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 40% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 40% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 37% |
Two of our three models agree on the match result; the third sees it differently.
Expected goals: 1.34 for the home side, 1.26 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derby vs Bolton?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.
Who is the favourite for Derby vs Bolton?
Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.4 scoreline for Derby vs Bolton.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Bolton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.40 for Derby and 1.38 for Bolton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Derby and Bolton play?
Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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