Tue 3 Nov0-4Finished

⚽ Championship

Derby vs Norwich Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Derby vs Norwich in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Derby 0-4 Norwich

Derby vs Norwich finished 0-4. Norwich won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.44, did not land.

Derby face Norwich in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Derby have no wins from their last 5, while Norwich have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Norwich won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.3-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Derby vs Norwich with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.44

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.32 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.2%	9.1%	6.6%	3.2%	1.2%
1	8.2%	12.0%	8.7%	4.2%	1.6%
2	5.4%	7.9%	5.8%	2.8%	1.0%
3	2.4%	3.5%	2.5%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Derby winDrawNorwich win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Derby vs Norwich comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Derby win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Derby 35%Draw 32%Norwich 34%

35%32%34%

35%

Derby Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Derby and Norwich. Wins shown from Derby’s perspective: 1 drawn · Norwich 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-11-03	Derby	0 – 4	Norwich	L
2026-04-21	Norwich	2 – 1	Derby	L
2025-02-08	Norwich	1 – 1	Derby	D
2024-09-28	Derby	2 – 3	Norwich	L

📈 Recent form

Derby

Derby come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Norwich.

LDerby 0-4 NorwichChampionship
LMillwall 4-1 DerbyChampionship
DSheffield Utd 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship

Norwich

Norwich come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Derby. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Portsmouth.

WDerby 0-4 NorwichChampionship
WNorwich 3-2 WatfordChampionship
WCharlton 1-3 NorwichChampionship
LNorwich 0-1 PortsmouthChampionship
LNorwich 0-1 SouthamptonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 15 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Derby

P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
E. CashinNot in squad
M. ClarkeCalf Injury
C. ForsythKnee Injury
S. LangasInjury
D. MurkinHamstring Injury
C. TaylorInjury
L. TravisAnkle Injury

Norwich

A. AhmedKnee Injury
P. A. DialloInjury
G. ForsythLacking Match Fitness
M. ToureShoulder Injury
P. MattssonHealth problems
K. McLeanNot in squad

🧩 Line-ups

Norwich 4-2-3-1

32Grimshaw

3Stacey

15McConville

6Darling

13Yongwa

16Wright

26Field

11Brooks

25Maghoma

49Musaba

30Kvistgaarden

9Morris

19Meister

8Clark

11Szmodics

29Fraulo

20Mowatt

24Nyambe

28Sanderson

43Gordon

22Johnston

1Widell Zetterström

Derby 4-2-3-1

Norwich

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Coach: P. Clement

Substitutes1Kovačević12Mahovo24Makama29Schwartau20Ben Slimane17Crnac35Fisher33Córdoba14Chrisene

Derby

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Coach: J. Eustace

Substitutes13Bilbija33Blackett-Taylor10Brewster25Duffy16Fuseini14Robinson15Salvesen27Travis31Vickers

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Derby at 35% to win and Norwich at 34%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Derby win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby Win	35%	28%	@ 3.40
Norwich Win	34%	46%	@ 2.05
Draw	32%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Derby or Draw at 1.73 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby or Draw	64%	54%	@ 1.73
Norwich or Draw	63%	72%	@ 1.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	70%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 2.5	53%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 2.5	47%	45%	@ 2.10
Over 3.5	30%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	24%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	45%	41%	@ 2.25

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Derby or Norwich is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Derby +2	89%	86%	1.10
Derby +1.75	87%	79%	@ 1.19
Derby +1.5	84%	74%	@ 1.28
Norwich +1.5	83%	86%	1.10
Derby +1.25	79%	72%	@ 1.33
Norwich +1.25	78%	86%	1.10
Derby +1	74%	68%	@ 1.41
Norwich +1	73%	85%	1.12
Derby +0.75	69%	59%	@ 1.61
Norwich +0.75	68%	78%	1.23
Derby +0.5	64%	53%	@ 1.81
Norwich +0.5	63%	72%	1.31
Derby +0.25	57%	46%	@ 2.06
Norwich +0.25	56%	68%	1.39
Derby 0	50%	37%	@ 2.56
Norwich 0	50%	63%	1.51
Derby -0.25	44%	32%	@ 3.02
Norwich -0.25	43%	54%	1.78
Derby -0.5	37%	28%	@ 3.46
Norwich -0.5	36%	47%	2.07
Derby -0.75	32%	22%	@ 4.29
Norwich -0.75	31%	41%	2.35
Derby -1	27%	15%	@ 6.40
Norwich -1	26%	32%	2.93
Derby -1.25	22%	14%	@ 6.80
Norwich -1.25	21%	28%	3.35
Derby -1.5	17%	14%	@ 6.80
Norwich -1.5	16%	26%	3.67
Norwich -1.75	13%	21%	4.50
Norwich -2	11%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Derby 27%Draw 27%Norwich 46%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Norwich?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.

Who is the favourite for Derby vs Norwich?

Our model makes a Derby win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.5 scoreline for Derby vs Norwich.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Norwich?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.32 for Derby and 1.46 for Norwich. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Derby and Norwich play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.