Sun 20 Sep1-2Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Estoril vs Casa Pia Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estoril vs Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Estoril 1-2 Casa Pia

Estoril vs Casa Pia finished 1-2. Casa Pia won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.28, landed.

Estoril face Casa Pia in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Estoril have 0 wins from their last 5, while Casa Pia have 0 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Estoril won 1, Casa Pia won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.7-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estoril vs Casa Pia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Casa Pia +1.75 @ 1.27

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.71 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	6.6%	3.5%	1.2%	0.3%
1	10.9%	11.4%	5.9%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.3%	9.7%	5.1%	1.8%	0.5%
3	5.3%	5.5%	2.9%	1.0%	0.3%
4	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Estoril winDrawCasa Pia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estoril vs Casa Pia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Casa Pia with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates an Estoril win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Estoril 48%Draw 27%Casa Pia 25%

48%27%25%

48%

Estoril Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Estoril and Casa Pia. Wins shown from Estoril’s perspective: Estoril 1 · 2 drawn · Casa Pia 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	Estoril	1 – 2	Casa Pia	L
2026-03-07	Estoril	0 – 0	Casa Pia	D
2025-10-03	Casa Pia	2 – 2	Estoril	D
2025-04-29	Casa Pia	1 – 3	Estoril	W
2024-12-15	Estoril	0 – 2	Casa Pia	L

📈 Recent form

Estoril

Estoril come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Casa Pia.

LEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
DEstoril 0-0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
LBenfica 2-1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
LEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Casa Pia

Casa Pia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at home to FC Porto.

WEstoril 1-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LGil Vicente 2-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estoril at 48% to win and Casa Pia at 25%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril Win	48%	54%	@ 1.73
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.60
Casa Pia Win	25%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Estoril or Draw at 1.18 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Estoril or Draw	74%	80%	@ 1.18
Casa Pia or Draw	51%	46%	@ 2.05

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	70%	71%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	52%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 2.5	48%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	30%	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	24%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.95

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Estoril or Casa Pia is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Casa Pia +2	82%	82%	1.16
Casa Pia +1.75	79%	–	1.27
Estoril +0.75	78%	85%	1.12
Casa Pia +1.5	75%	69%	@ 1.38
Estoril +0.5	74%	79%	1.19
Casa Pia +1.25	69%	65%	@ 1.48
Estoril +0.25	68%	77%	1.24
Casa Pia +1	63%	59%	@ 1.61
Estoril 0	61%	74%	1.29
Casa Pia +0.75	57%	51%	@ 1.91
Estoril -0.25	55%	63%	1.51
Casa Pia +0.5	51%	45%	@ 2.13
Estoril -0.5	49%	55%	1.73
Casa Pia +0.25	45%	37%	@ 2.57
Estoril -0.75	43%	49%	1.96
Casa Pia 0	39%	26%	@ 3.60
Estoril -1	37%	41%	2.35
Casa Pia -0.25	32%	23%	@ 4.11
Estoril -1.25	31%	35%	2.69
Casa Pia -0.5	26%	21%	@ 4.50
Estoril -1.5	25%	31%	3.08
Casa Pia -0.75	22%	15%	@ 6.25
Estoril -2	18%	18%	5.25

📈 How the market moved

Estoril 55%Draw 25%Casa Pia 20%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estoril vs Casa Pia?

Our model's main pick is Casa Pia with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.

Who is the favourite for Estoril vs Casa Pia?

Our model makes an Estoril win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.0 scoreline for Estoril vs Casa Pia.

What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.71 for Estoril and 1.04 for Casa Pia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estoril and Casa Pia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.