⚽ Primeira Liga
Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 20:30 UTC.
Estrela da Amadora face Benfica in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 20:30 UTC. Recent form: Estrela da Amadora have no wins from their last 5, while Benfica have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Benfica won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 0.9-2.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.7% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 5.2% |
| 2 | 1.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is a Benfica win at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Estrela da Amadora and Benfica. Wins shown from Estrela da Amadora’s perspective: Benfica 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Benfica | 4 – 0 | Estrela da Amadora | L |
| 2025-08-16 | Estrela da Amadora | 0 – 1 | Benfica | L |
| 2025-02-02 | Estrela da Amadora | 2 – 3 | Benfica | L |
| 2024-08-24 | Benfica | 1 – 0 | Estrela da Amadora | L |
| 2024-01-29 | Estrela da Amadora | 1 – 4 | Benfica | L |
📈 Recent form
Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Fazendense. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Moreirense.
- LMoreirense 2-1 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
- WFazendense 1-2 Estrela da AmadoraTaça de Portugal
- LArouca 1-0 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
- LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
Benfica come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gil Vicente. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WBenfica 1-0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
- WBenfica 4-1 Gil VicenteTaça da Liga
- WSanta Clara 1-2 BenficaPrimeira Liga
- WOmonia Nicosia 1-4 BenficaUEFA Europa League
- WBenfica 4-1 CelticUEFA Europa League
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Benfica
Coach: Marco Silva
Estrela
Coach: Pepa
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Estrela da Amadora at 11% to win and Benfica at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica Win | 73% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Draw | 15% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Estrela da Amadora Win | 11% | 9% | @ 10.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.06 (90% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica or Draw | 90% | 91% | @ 1.06 |
| Estrela da Amadora or Draw | 28% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-2.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 | 54% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
Our model's pick is a Benfica win at odds 1.25, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 0.9-2.6 scoreline for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica.
What is the predicted score for Estrela da Amadora vs Benfica?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-2, based on expected goals of 0.91 for Estrela da Amadora and 2.59 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Estrela da Amadora and Benfica play?
Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 20:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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