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⚽ Primeira Liga

Famalicão vs Arouca Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Famalicão vs Arouca in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Famalicão face Arouca in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Friday 06 November 2026, 20:45 UTC. Recent form: Famalicão have 2 wins from their last 5, while Arouca have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Famalicão won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.4-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Famalicão vs Arouca with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.45 – 1.09 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	8.6%	4.7%	1.7%	0.5%
1	11.4%	12.5%	6.8%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.0%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
3	4.0%	4.4%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.6%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Famalicão winDrawArouca win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Famalicão vs Arouca comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Famalicão win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Famalicão 52%Draw 25%Arouca 23%

52%25%23%

52%

Famalicão Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Famalicão and Arouca. Wins shown from Famalicão’s perspective: Famalicão 2 · 3 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-22	Famalicão	0 – 0	Arouca	D
2026-03-06	Famalicão	1 – 0	Arouca	W
2025-10-05	Arouca	1 – 1	Famalicão	D
2025-04-05	Arouca	1 – 2	Famalicão	W
2024-11-09	Famalicão	0 – 0	Arouca	D

📈 Recent form

Famalicão

Famalicão come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Rio Ave. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at SC Braga.

LSC Braga 3-0 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
DSC Braga 2-2 FamalicãoTaça da Liga
WRio Ave 0-4 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
LParedes 1-0 FamalicãoTaça de Portugal
LFamalicão 1-4 AlvercaPrimeira Liga

Arouca

Arouca come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Nacional. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WArouca 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga
WAlverca 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
DCF Os Belenenses 3-3 AroucaTaça de Portugal
WArouca 1-0 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
DSporting CP 2-2 AroucaPrimeira Liga

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Arouca 4-2-3-1

12de Arruabarrena

28Esgaio

15Sánchez

3Fontán

18Lebedenko

6van Ee

21Flores

19Trezza

8Fukui

7Djouahra

17Barbero

70Koutsias

7Sorriso

10Santos

18Beney

14Amorim

6van de Looi

2Garcia

3Realpe

15Rofino

17Pinheiro

25Carević

Famalicao 4-2-3-1

Arouca

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Nacional, 01/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Vítor Severino

Bench last match37Climent10Gozálbez14Hyun-Ju24Mansilla9Mayulu4Monteiro23Nandín77Park5Popović2Shahar1Vinarčík27Balde

Famalicao

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs SC Braga, 01/11

Unavailable: No reported absences

Coach: Ricardo Silva

Bench last match1Zlobin11Aranda4van Breemen30Serafimović33Salas8Peña28Francisco19Moreira24Jangeal23Dias9Abubakar72Correia

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Famalicão at 52% to win and Arouca at 23%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão Win	52%	43%	@ 2.15
Draw	25%	27%	@ 3.40
Arouca Win	23%	29%	@ 3.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Famalicão or Draw at 1.30 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Famalicão or Draw	77%	71%	@ 1.30
Arouca or Draw	47%	57%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	73%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	72%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	53%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	47%	46%	@ 2.05
Under 1.5	28%	29%	@ 3.25
Over 3.5	25%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	50%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	50%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Famalicão 44%Draw 28%Arouca 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

🔬 What our models say about this match

🔍 What our models say about this match

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	47%
Dixon-Coles	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Home	57%

All three of our models point the same way on the match result.

Expected goals: 1.66 for the home side, 1.01 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Famalicão vs Arouca?

Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Famalicão vs Arouca?

Our model makes a Famalicão win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.1 scoreline for Famalicão vs Arouca.

What is the predicted score for Famalicão vs Arouca?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.45 for Famalicão and 1.09 for Arouca. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Famalicão and Arouca play?

Kick-off is Friday 06 November 2026, 20:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.