Sun 20 Sep3-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

FC Porto vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Porto vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: FC Porto 3-1 Benfica

FC Porto vs Benfica finished 3-1. FC Porto won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.33, did not land.

FC Porto face Benfica in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:30 UTC. Recent form: FC Porto have 5 wins from their last 5, while Benfica have 5 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, FC Porto won 1, Benfica won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Porto vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.36 – 1.17 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	9.3%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
1	10.8%	12.7%	7.4%	2.9%	0.8%
2	7.4%	8.6%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.3%	3.9%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

FC Porto winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

FC Porto 33%Draw 32%Benfica 35%

33%32%35%

35%

Benfica Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between FC Porto and Benfica. Wins shown from FC Porto’s perspective: FC Porto 1 · 2 drawn · Benfica 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-20	FC Porto	3 – 1	Benfica	W
2026-03-08	Benfica	2 – 2	FC Porto	D
2025-10-05	FC Porto	0 – 0	Benfica	D
2025-04-06	FC Porto	1 – 4	Benfica	L
2024-11-10	Benfica	4 – 1	FC Porto	L

📈 Recent form

FC Porto

FC Porto come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Casa Pia. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Manchester City.

WFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 1-4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
WFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WAcadémico de Viseu 0-3 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FC Porto at 33% to win and Benfica at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	35%	37%	@ 2.55
FC Porto Win	33%	35%	@ 2.70
Draw	32%	28%	@ 3.30

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.44 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	64%	65%	@ 1.44
FC Porto or Draw	62%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	69%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	72%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	54%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 2.5	46%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 1.5	28%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	25%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	49%	44%	@ 2.10

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when FC Porto or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
FC Porto +1.75	86%	86%	1.10
Benfica +1.5	84%	83%	1.15
FC Porto +1.5	83%	81%	1.17
Benfica +1.25	79%	81%	1.17
FC Porto +1.25	78%	79%	1.19
Benfica +1	74%	–	1.19
FC Porto +1	72%	77%	1.24
Benfica +0.75	69%	72%	1.32
FC Porto +0.75	67%	69%	1.39
Benfica +0.5	64%	65%	1.46
FC Porto +0.5	62%	62%	1.52
Benfica +0.25	58%	60%	1.59
FC Porto +0.25	56%	56%	1.70
Benfica 0	51%	53%	1.83
FC Porto 0	49%	47%	2.03
Benfica -0.25	44%	44%	2.18
FC Porto -0.25	42%	40%	@ 2.38
Benfica -0.5	38%	38%	2.53
FC Porto -0.5	36%	35%	2.74
Benfica -0.75	33%	31%	3.04
FC Porto -0.75	31%	28%	@ 3.40
Benfica -1	28%	23%	@ 4.12
Benfica -1.25	22%	21%	@ 4.50
FC Porto -1.25	21%	19%	@ 5.00
Benfica -1.5	17%	19%	5.00
FC Porto -1.5	16%	17%	5.50
Benfica -1.75	14%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

FC Porto 35%Draw 28%Benfica 37%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for FC Porto vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.36 for FC Porto and 1.17 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FC Porto and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.