⚽ UEFA Champions League
FC Porto vs Napoli Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FC Porto vs Napoli in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Result: FC Porto 4-1 Napoli
FC Porto vs Napoli finished 4-1. FC Porto won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Napoli with a +1.5 start at 1.30, did not land.
FC Porto face Napoli in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 04 November 2026, 20:00 UTC. Recent form: FC Porto have no wins from their last 3, while Napoli have 1 win from their last 3. The bookmaker market makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 49%, implying a 1.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FC Porto vs Napoli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.6% | 5.6% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Napoli with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a FC Porto win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (57%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
FC Porto come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Estoril. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- WFC Porto 4-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- WFC Porto 4-0 EstorilPrimeira Liga
- WFC Porto 1-0 Académico de ViseuTaça da Liga
- WGil Vicente 0-1 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
- LFC Porto 0-1 PSV EindhovenUEFA Champions League
Napoli come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Monza. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at FC Porto.
- LFC Porto 4-1 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- LJuventus 2-0 NapoliSerie A
- WMonza 1-4 NapoliSerie A
- DNapoli 3-3 AS RomaSerie A
- WNapoli 4-3 Bodo/GlimtUEFA Champions League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 18 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel MecOff the roster
- D. PrpicOff the roster
- C. SmallingKnee Injury
- V. SousaLeg Injury
- William GomesAnkle Injury
- O. PietuszewskiMuscle Injury
- Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
- B. BadiashileInjury
- A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
- David NeresThigh Injury
- G. Di LorenzoMuscle Injury
- C. FavasuliThigh Injury
- S. LobotkaAnkle Injury
- L. MarianucciOff the roster
🧩 Line-ups
Napoli
Coach: M. Allegri
FC Porto
Coach: F. Farioli
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices FC Porto at 45% to win and Napoli at 26%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto Win | 45% | 49% | @ 1.95 |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
| Napoli Win | 26% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is FC Porto or Draw at 1.25 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto or Draw | 72% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| Napoli or Draw | 53% | 51% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 43% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when FC Porto or Napoli is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto +1.25 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Napoli +2 | 84% | 85% | 1.12 |
| FC Porto +1 | 81% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Napoli +1.75 | 80% | 79% | 1.20 |
| FC Porto +0.75 | 77% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Napoli +1.5 | 76% | 73% | 1.30 |
| FC Porto +0.5 | 72% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Napoli +1.25 | 71% | 70% | 1.35 |
| FC Porto +0.25 | 66% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Napoli +1 | 65% | 66% | 1.44 |
| FC Porto 0 | 60% | 66% | 1.46 |
| Napoli +0.75 | 59% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Napoli +0.5 | 53% | 51% | @ 1.90 |
| FC Porto -0.25 | 53% | 56% | 1.71 |
| FC Porto -0.5 | 47% | 49% | 1.99 |
| Napoli +0.25 | 47% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| FC Porto -0.75 | 41% | 42% | 2.27 |
| Napoli 0 | 40% | 34% | @ 2.77 |
| FC Porto -1 | 35% | 34% | 2.82 |
| Napoli -0.25 | 34% | 30% | @ 3.21 |
| FC Porto -1.25 | 29% | 30% | 3.20 |
| Napoli -0.5 | 28% | 26% | @ 3.67 |
| FC Porto -1.5 | 24% | 27% | 3.58 |
| Napoli -0.75 | 23% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| FC Porto -1.75 | 20% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Napoli -1 | 19% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| FC Porto -2 | 16% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Napoli -1.25 | 15% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli?
Our main pick is Napoli with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Napoli?
Our model makes a FC Porto win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.2 scoreline for FC Porto vs Napoli.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Napoli?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.70 for FC Porto and 1.17 for Napoli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do FC Porto and Napoli play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 04 November 2026, 20:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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