Fri 16 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Le Mans vs Toulouse Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Le Mans vs Toulouse in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Le Mans face Toulouse in the Ligue 1, kicking off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Le Mans have 1 win from their last 5, while Toulouse have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Le Mans win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.7-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Le Mans vs Toulouse with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS Yes @ 1.62

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.69 – 1.69 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	5.8%	4.9%	2.7%	1.2%
1	5.8%	9.7%	8.2%	4.6%	2.0%
2	4.9%	8.2%	6.9%	3.9%	1.7%
3	2.7%	4.6%	3.9%	2.2%	0.9%
4	1.2%	2.0%	1.7%	0.9%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Le Mans winDrawToulouse win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is both teams to score at odds 1.62, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Le Mans win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Le Mans 39%Draw 28%Toulouse 33%

39%28%33%

39%

Le Mans Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Le Mans

Le Mans come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Lorient. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Paris Saint-Germain.

LParis Saint-Germain 3-1 Le MansLigue 1
WLe Mans 2-1 LorientLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
DNice 1-1 Le MansLigue 1
LRennes 3-2 Le MansLigue 1

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Lille.

DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Le Mans at 39% to win and Toulouse at 33%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Le Mans win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Le Mans Win	39%	32%	@ 2.90
Toulouse Win	33%	41%	@ 2.30
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Le Mans or Draw at 1.57 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Le Mans or Draw	66%	59%	@ 1.57
Toulouse or Draw	60%	68%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	78%	@ 1.22
Over 2.5	66%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 3.5	56%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 3.5	44%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 2.5	34%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	15%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	34%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Le Mans 32%Draw 27%Toulouse 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Our model's pick is both teams to score at odds 1.62, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 58%.

Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

Our model makes a Le Mans win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.7 scoreline for Le Mans vs Toulouse.

What is the predicted score for Le Mans vs Toulouse?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.69 for Le Mans and 1.69 for Toulouse. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Le Mans and Toulouse play?

Kick-off is Friday 16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.