Sun 16 Aug1-5Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Mirassol vs Flamengo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Mirassol vs Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo

Mirassol vs Flamengo finished 1-5. Flamengo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Mirassol face Flamengo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Flamengo won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Mirassol vs Flamengo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.14 – 1.65 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	10.1%	8.4%	4.6%	1.9%
1	7.0%	11.6%	9.5%	5.2%	2.2%
2	4.0%	6.6%	5.4%	3.0%	1.2%
3	1.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.1%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Mirassol winDrawFlamengo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Flamengo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Mirassol 22%Draw 27%Flamengo 51%

22%27%51%

51%

Flamengo Win

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Mirassol and Flamengo. Wins shown from Mirassol’s perspective: Flamengo 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-02	Flamengo	2 – 0	Mirassol	L
2026-08-16	Mirassol	1 – 5	Flamengo	L

📈 Recent form

Mirassol

Mirassol come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Botafogo. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Flamengo.

WMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 1-1 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A

Flamengo

Flamengo come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Independiente del Valle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFlamengo 2-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DFlamengo 1-1 Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WIndependiente del Valle 0-2 FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
WRemo 0-1 FlamengoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Mirassol

Jose AldoMuscle Injury
NeguebaKnee Injury

Flamengo

Alex SandroCalf Injury
Bruno HenriqueRest
EvertonIllness
VitaoMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Mirassol at 22% to win and Flamengo at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo Win	51%	50%	@ 1.86
Draw	27%	28%	@ 3.35
Mirassol Win	22%	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Flamengo or Draw at 1.21 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo or Draw	77%	78%	@ 1.21
Mirassol or Draw	48%	50%	@ 1.90

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 3.5	69%	75%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	53%	46%	@ 2.08
Under 2.5	47%	54%	@ 1.74
Over 3.5	31%	25%	@ 3.75
Under 1.5	23%	29%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	49%	@ 1.87
BTTS No	45%	51%	@ 1.83

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Mirassol or Flamengo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Flamengo +0.75	80%	83%	1.15
Mirassol +2	80%	85%	1.12
Flamengo +0.5	77%	77%	1.24
Mirassol +1.75	76%	77%	1.21
Mirassol +1.5	72%	73%	1.30
Flamengo +0.25	70%	74%	1.28
Mirassol +1.25	66%	69%	1.37
Flamengo 0	64%	68%	1.38
Mirassol +1	60%	64%	1.47
Flamengo -0.25	58%	58%	1.62
Mirassol +0.75	54%	56%	1.69
Flamengo -0.5	52%	51%	1.87
Mirassol +0.5	48%	49%	1.92
Flamengo -0.75	46%	44%	2.16
Mirassol +0.25	42%	42%	2.27
Flamengo -1	40%	36%	@ 2.67
Mirassol 0	36%	32%	@ 2.98
Flamengo -1.25	34%	31%	@ 3.08
Mirassol -0.25	30%	26%	@ 3.57
Flamengo -1.5	28%	27%	3.52
Flamengo -1.75	24%	23%	4.07
Mirassol -0.5	23%	23%	4.11
Flamengo -2	20%	15%	@ 6.40
Mirassol -0.75	20%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Mirassol 23%Draw 27%Flamengo 50%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Flamengo?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Flamengo?

Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Mirassol vs Flamengo.

What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Flamengo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Mirassol and 1.65 for Flamengo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Mirassol and Flamengo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.