vs
⚽ Brazilian Série A
Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Mirassol vs Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Mirassol face Flamengo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.2-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Mirassol vs Flamengo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Mirassol vs Flamengo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Flamengo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+7.4% model value).
📊 Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Mirassol at 23% to win and Flamengo at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol Win | 23% | @ 4.20 | -3.7% |
| Draw | 27% | @ 3.45 | -5.8% |
| Flamengo Win | 50% | @ 1.84 | -8.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Mirassol or Draw at 1.91 (49% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol or Draw | 49% | @ 1.91 | -6.5% |
| Flamengo or Draw | 76% | @ 1.22 | -7.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 29% | @ 3.75 | +8.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | @ 2.10 | +7.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | @ 1.35 | +1.9% |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | @ 1.25 | -11.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | @ 1.73 | -15.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | @ 3.10 | -24.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | @ 1.90 | +4.0% |
| BTTS No | 45% | @ 1.80 | -18.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 41% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 50% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 53% |
All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.
Expected goals: 1.03 for the home side, 1.62 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.35, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+7.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our model makes a Flamengo win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.6 scoreline for Mirassol vs Flamengo.
What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.16 for Mirassol and 1.56 for Flamengo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Mirassol and Flamengo play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.