⚽ Championship
Portsmouth vs Stoke City Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portsmouth vs Stoke City in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Portsmouth face Stoke City in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 12:30 UTC. Recent form: Portsmouth have 3 wins from their last 5, while Stoke City have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Portsmouth won 2, Stoke City won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.5-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portsmouth vs Stoke City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 12.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Portsmouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (50%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Portsmouth and Stoke City. Wins shown from Portsmouth’s perspective: Portsmouth 2 · Stoke City 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stoke City | 1 – 3 | Portsmouth | W |
| 2025-01-22 | Portsmouth | 3 – 1 | Stoke City | W |
| 2024-10-02 | Stoke City | 6 – 1 | Portsmouth | L |
📈 Recent form
Portsmouth come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Swansea.
- WPortsmouth 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
- DBurnley 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
- WPortsmouth 2-1 MillwallChampionship
- DWolves 1-1 PortsmouthChampionship
- WNorwich 0-1 PortsmouthChampionship
Stoke City come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Preston. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Middlesbrough.
- WBlackburn 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- WStoke City 2-0 PrestonChampionship
- DStoke City 0-0 Bristol CityChampionship
- WDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- LStoke City 2-3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Stoke City
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: M. Robins
Portsmouth
Unavailable: No reported absences
Coach: John Mousinho
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portsmouth at 44% to win and Stoke City at 20%, with the draw at 36%. Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth Win | 44% | 41% | @ 2.30 |
| Draw | 36% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Stoke City Win | 20% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portsmouth or Draw at 1.36 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth or Draw | 74% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Stoke City or Draw | 51% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 28% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 50% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline for Portsmouth vs Stoke City.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Portsmouth and 1.00 for Stoke City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portsmouth and Stoke City play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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