⚽ Brazilian Série A
Santos vs Mirassol Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Result: Santos 1-1 Mirassol
Santos vs Mirassol finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, landed.
Santos face Mirassol in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 2.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Mirassol with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Santos vs Mirassol comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (65%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.
- WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
- WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A
Mirassol come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Botafogo. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Flamengo.
- WMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
- DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
- WCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- LFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
- DMirassol 1-1 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Gabriel BontempoInjury
- Lucas VerissimoCalf Injury
- Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
- G. CazonattiNot in squad
- DenilsonSuspended (cards)
- EliasNot in squad
- Gustavo SilvaNot in squad
- Jose AldoMuscle Injury
- NeguebaKnee Injury
- DenilsonInjury
- Edson CariocaInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Santos at 45% to win and Mirassol at 28%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos Win | 45% | 49% | @ 1.90 |
| Mirassol Win | 28% | 24% | @ 3.95 |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santos or Draw at 1.23 (71% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos or Draw | 71% | 76% | @ 1.23 |
| Mirassol or Draw | 54% | 51% | @ 1.86 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 73% | @ 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 | 66% | 49% | @ 1.93 |
| Under 3.5 | 56% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 51% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 1.5 | 15% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
| BTTS No | 35% | 47% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Santos or Mirassol is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol +2 | 84% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Mirassol +1.75 | 81% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Mirassol +1.5 | 77% | 72% | @ 1.30 |
| Santos +0.75 | 76% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Mirassol +1.25 | 72% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Santos +0.5 | 71% | – | 1.24 |
| Mirassol +1 | 66% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Santos +0.25 | 65% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Mirassol +0.75 | 60% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Santos 0 | 58% | 68% | 1.40 |
| Mirassol +0.5 | 54% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Santos -0.25 | 52% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Mirassol +0.25 | 48% | 42% | @ 2.26 |
| Santos -0.5 | 46% | 50% | 1.89 |
| Mirassol 0 | 42% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Santos -0.75 | 40% | 44% | 2.16 |
| Mirassol -0.25 | 35% | 27% | @ 3.48 |
| Santos -1 | 34% | 36% | 2.68 |
| Santos -1.25 | 28% | 31% | 3.08 |
| Mirassol -0.75 | 24% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Santos -1.5 | 23% | 28% | 3.38 |
| Santos -1.75 | 19% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Santos -2 | 16% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Santos vs Mirassol?
Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.4 scoreline for Santos vs Mirassol.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Mirassol?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.03 for Santos and 1.36 for Mirassol. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Santos and Mirassol play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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