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⚽ Premier League

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs Chelsea in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Sunderland face Chelsea in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Sunderland have no wins from their last 5, while Chelsea have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Sunderland won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs Chelsea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.29 – 1.55 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	9.1%	7.0%	3.6%	1.4%
1	7.5%	11.7%	9.1%	4.7%	1.8%
2	4.9%	7.5%	5.8%	3.0%	1.2%
3	2.1%	3.2%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Sunderland winDrawChelsea win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chelsea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (58%).

📊 Key numbers

Sunderland 33%Draw 29%Chelsea 38%

33%29%38%

38%

Chelsea Win

54%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Sunderland and Chelsea. Wins shown from Sunderland’s perspective: Sunderland 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-24	Sunderland	2 – 1	Chelsea	W
2025-10-25	Chelsea	1 – 2	Sunderland	W

📈 Recent form

Sunderland

Sunderland come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Brentford. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Coventry.

LCoventry 3-1 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 3-2 BrentfordLeague Cup
DSunderland 0-0 LeedsPremier League
DLech Poznan 1-1 SunderlandUEFA Europa League
LBournemouth 2-0 SunderlandPremier League

Chelsea

Chelsea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Bournemouth. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Tottenham.

WChelsea 2-0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
DLiverpool 1-1 ChelseaLeague Cup
LChelsea 0-2 TottenhamPremier League
WEverton 0-2 ChelseaPremier League
WChelsea 5-1 BournemouthPremier League

🧩 Likely line-ups & team news

Chelsea 4-2-3-1

39Penders

34Acheampong

5Lacroix

3Fofana

27Gusto

25Caicedo

45Lavia

7Neto

14Henderson

17Rogers

18Welbeck

9Brobbey

10Angulo

28Le Fée

11Rigg

34Xhaka

27Sadiki

17Reinildo

15Alderete

13O'Nien

32Hume

22Roefs

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

Chelsea

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Liverpool, 28/10

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Bench last match22Emegha41Estêvão32Nicoll-Jazuli2Palestra23Quenda28Sharman-Lowe37Subuloye4Barco6Colwill

Sunderland

Last starting XI (4-2-3-1) vs Coventry, 31/10

Coach: R. Le Bris

Bench last match18Isidor31Ellborg4Danso12Meunier6Methalie29Ahoka7Talbi39Fofana37Bi

Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sunderland at 33% to win and Chelsea at 38%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chelsea Win	38%	49%	@ 1.95
Sunderland Win	33%	25%	@ 3.75
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chelsea or Draw at 1.25 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chelsea or Draw	66%	75%	@ 1.25
Sunderland or Draw	61%	51%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	68%	68%	@ 1.40
Over 2.5	54%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	46%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 3.5	32%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	22%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	58%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	42%	45%	@ 2.05

📈 How the market moved

Sunderland 26%Draw 26%Chelsea 48%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Our model's pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

Our model makes a Chelsea win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Sunderland vs Chelsea.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Chelsea?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.29 for Sunderland and 1.55 for Chelsea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sunderland and Chelsea play?

Kick-off is Sunday 08 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.