vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Charlotte Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Charlotte in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte
Toronto FC vs Charlotte finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at 1.30, landed.
Toronto FC face Charlotte in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 1, Charlotte won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.4-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Charlotte with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Charlotte is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Charlotte win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Charlotte to win by 0+ goals at odds 2.56 (+36.3% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and Charlotte. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: Toronto FC 1 · 1 drawn · Charlotte 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Toronto FC | 3 – 3 | Charlotte | D |
| 2026-05-16 | Charlotte | 3 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-04-13 | Charlotte | 3 – 2 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-03-09 | Toronto FC | 1 – 0 | Charlotte | W |
| 2023-10-04 | Charlotte | 3 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to New England Revolution. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at DC United.
- DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 1-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LDC United 2-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DNew England Revolution 0-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Charlotte come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Columbus Crew. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to CF Pachuca.
- DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WCharlotte 3-1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- LCharlotte 0-1 CF PachucaLeagues Cup
- WCharlotte 2-0 AtlasLeagues Cup
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. GomisThigh Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- Matheus PereiraGroin Injury
- D. MihailovicSuspended (red card)
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- L. StefanovicFoot Injury
- N. BerchimasFoot Injury
- A. JohnUpper-Body Injury
- H. ToffoloHamstring Injury
- N. ByrneInjury
- A. JohnsonInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 28% to win and Charlotte at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Win | 48% | @ 2.90 | +37.7% |
| Draw | 24% | @ 3.55 | -14.0% |
| Toronto FC Win | 28% | @ 2.28 | -35.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlotte or Draw at 1.61 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte or Draw | 72% | @ 1.61 | +16.6% |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 53% | @ 1.40 | -25.9% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 59% | @ 1.72 | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | @ 2.77 | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | @ 1.22 | -1.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | @ 1.43 | -9.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | @ 2.11 | -13.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | @ 1.59 | -3.8% |
| BTTS No | 40% | @ 2.24 | -11.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toronto FC or Charlotte is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte -1 | 35% | @ 5.00 | +76.1% |
| Charlotte -1.25 | 29% | @ 5.50 | +61.8% |
| Charlotte -0.75 | 41% | @ 3.65 | +49.8% |
| Charlotte -0.25 | 53% | @ 2.56 | +36.3% |
| Charlotte -0.5 | 47% | @ 2.85 | +33.5% |
| Charlotte 0 | 60% | @ 2.16 | +28.8% |
| Charlotte +0.25 | 66% | @ 1.84 | +21.5% |
| Charlotte +0.5 | 72% | @ 1.61 | +16.8% |
| Charlotte +0.75 | 77% | @ 1.47 | +12.3% |
| Charlotte +1.5 | 89% | @ 1.20 | +7.2% |
| Charlotte +1.25 | 85% | @ 1.25 | +6.3% |
| Charlotte +1 | 81% | @ 1.30 | +5.5% |
| Charlotte +1.75 | 91% | @ 1.14 | +3.9% |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 76% | 1.12 | -14.1% |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 71% | 1.15 | -18.8% |
| Toronto FC +1 | 65% | 1.17 | -24.2% |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 59% | 1.28 | -24.5% |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 53% | 1.40 | -25.7% |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 47% | 1.51 | -29.2% |
| Toronto FC 0 | 40% | 1.70 | -31.5% |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 34% | 2.00 | -31.9% |
| Toronto FC -1 | 19% | 3.54 | -32.2% |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 23% | 2.73 | -36.3% |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 28% | 2.25 | -37.9% |
| Toronto FC -1.25 | 15% | 3.99 | -40.5% |
| Toronto FC -1.75 | 9% | 5.75 | -49.3% |
| Toronto FC -1.5 | 11% | 4.10 | -56.2% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
Our main pick is Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at odds 1.30, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Charlotte to win by 0+ goals at 2.56 (+36.3% value).
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Charlotte.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Toronto FC and 1.68 for Charlotte. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Charlotte play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Bologna
Lazio
Baltika
Rubin
Osasuna
Levante
Kocaelispor
Amed
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Reims
AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.