ā½ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Charlotte Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Charlotte in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 3-3 Charlotte
Toronto FC vs Charlotte finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at 1.30, landed.
Toronto FC face Charlotte in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 1, Charlotte won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.4-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Charlotte with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
š„ Best Bet
šÆ Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
š§ Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Charlotte comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Charlotte win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
š Key numbers
š Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and Charlotte. Wins shown from Toronto FCās perspective: Toronto FC 1 · 1 drawn · Charlotte 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Toronto FC | 3 – 3 | Charlotte | D |
| 2026-05-16 | Charlotte | 3 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-04-13 | Charlotte | 3 – 2 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-03-09 | Toronto FC | 1 – 0 | Charlotte | W |
| 2023-10-04 | Charlotte | 3 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
š Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Charlotte come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Atlanta United FC.
- WDC United 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- DFC Cincinnati 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WCF Montreal 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- DCharlotte 0-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WAtlanta United FC 0-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
š„ Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. GomisThigh Injury
- D. KerrLower-Body Injury
- Matheus PereiraGroin Injury
- D. MihailovicSuspended (red card)
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- L. StefanovicFoot Injury
- N. BerchimasFoot Injury
- A. JohnUpper-Body Injury
- H. ToffoloHamstring Injury
- N. ByrneInjury
- A. JohnsonInjury
ā½ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 28% to win and Charlotte at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Win | 48% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
| Toronto FC Win | 28% | 41% | @ 2.28 |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
š Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charlotte or Draw at 1.60 (72% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte or Draw | 72% | 59% | @ 1.60 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 53% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
š Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 64% | 65% | @ 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
š„ Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 39% | @ 2.35 |
āļø Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toronto FC or Charlotte is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte +1.75 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Charlotte +1.5 | 89% | 77% | @ 1.20 |
| Charlotte +1.25 | 85% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Charlotte +1 | 81% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Charlotte +0.75 | 77% | 65% | @ 1.47 |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 76% | – | 1.12 |
| Charlotte +0.5 | 72% | 58% | @ 1.61 |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 71% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Charlotte +0.25 | 66% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Toronto FC +1 | 65% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Charlotte 0 | 60% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 59% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Charlotte -0.25 | 53% | 37% | @ 2.56 |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 53% | 67% | 1.40 |
| Charlotte -0.5 | 47% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 47% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Charlotte -0.75 | 41% | 26% | @ 3.65 |
| Toronto FC 0 | 40% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Charlotte -1 | 35% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 34% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Charlotte -1.25 | 29% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 28% | 42% | 2.25 |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 23% | 35% | 2.73 |
| Toronto FC -1 | 19% | 27% | 3.54 |
| Toronto FC -1.25 | 15% | 24% | 3.99 |
| Toronto FC -1.5 | 11% | 23% | 4.10 |
| Toronto FC -1.75 | 9% | 17% | 5.75 |
š How the market moved
ā Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
Our model's main pick is Charlotte Asian Handicap with a +1 start at odds 1.30, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 77%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
Our model makes a Charlotte win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.7 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Charlotte.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Charlotte?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Toronto FC and 1.68 for Charlotte. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Charlotte play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 19 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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