Sun 20 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Moreirense Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória SC vs Moreirense in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vitória SC 1-1 Moreirense

Vitória SC vs Moreirense finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Vitória SC face Moreirense in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:30 UTC. Recent form: Vitória SC have 1 win from their last 5, while Moreirense have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória SC vs Moreirense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Moreirense +1.75 @ 1.39

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	7.6%	4.2%	1.5%	0.4%
1	10.9%	12.0%	6.6%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.5%	9.4%	5.2%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.5%	4.9%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.8%	1.9%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória SC winDrawMoreirense win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória SC vs Moreirense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Moreirense with a +1.75 start at odds 1.39, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória SC 45%Draw 27%Moreirense 28%

45%27%28%

45%

Vitória SC Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Vitória SC

Vitória SC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Nacional. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Académico de Viseu.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LAcadémico de Viseu 2-1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
LSC Braga 1-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
WVitória SC 1-0 NacionalPrimeira Liga

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória SC at 45% to win and Moreirense at 28%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC Win	45%	61%	@ 1.53
Moreirense Win	28%	13%	@ 7.00
Draw	27%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória SC or Draw at 1.10 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC or Draw	71%	87%	@ 1.10
Moreirense or Draw	55%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	72%	71%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	50%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	50%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	28%	29%	@ 3.25
Under 1.5	25%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	47%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória SC or Moreirense is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense +2	84%	77%	@ 1.24
Moreirense +1.75	81%	69%	@ 1.39
Moreirense +1.5	78%	62%	@ 1.53
Moreirense +1.25	72%	57%	@ 1.68
Vitória SC +0.5	71%	85%	1.12
Moreirense +1	66%	49%	@ 1.97
Vitória SC +0.25	65%	83%	1.14
Moreirense +0.75	60%	42%	@ 2.27
Vitória SC 0	58%	81%	1.18
Moreirense +0.5	55%	37%	@ 2.54
Vitória SC -0.25	52%	71%	1.34
Moreirense +0.25	48%	29%	@ 3.25
Vitória SC -0.5	45%	63%	1.51
Moreirense 0	42%	19%	@ 5.11
Vitória SC -0.75	40%	58%	1.65
Moreirense -0.25	35%	17%	@ 5.75
Vitória SC -1	34%	51%	1.90
Moreirense -0.5	29%	15%	@ 6.40
Vitória SC -1.25	28%	43%	2.21
Vitória SC -1.5	22%	38%	2.48
Vitória SC -1.75	19%	31%	3.04
Vitória SC -2	16%	23%	4.08

📈 How the market moved

Vitória SC 62%Draw 24%Moreirense 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?

Our model's main pick is Moreirense with a +1.75 start at odds 1.39, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?

Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Vitória SC vs Moreirense.

What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Vitória SC and 1.10 for Moreirense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória SC and Moreirense play?

Kick-off is Sunday 20 September 2026, 14:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.