Tue 3 Nov1-0Finished

⚽ Championship

Watford vs Lincoln Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Watford vs Lincoln in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Watford 1-0 Lincoln

Watford vs Lincoln finished 1-0. Watford won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.36, landed.

Watford face Lincoln in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Watford have 1 win from their last 5, while Lincoln have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.1-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Watford vs Lincoln with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.08 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.3%	12.0%	7.8%	3.4%	1.1%
1	10.0%	13.0%	8.4%	3.7%	1.2%
2	5.4%	7.0%	4.6%	2.0%	0.6%
3	1.9%	2.5%	1.6%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Watford winDrawLincoln win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Watford vs Lincoln comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Lincoln win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Watford 24%Draw 25%Lincoln 51%

24%25%51%

51%

Lincoln Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Watford

Watford come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Charlton. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Norwich.

WWatford 1-0 LincolnChampionship
LNorwich 3-2 WatfordChampionship
LWolves 1-0 WatfordChampionship
WWatford 2-0 CharltonChampionship
LCardiff 5-1 WatfordChampionship

Lincoln

Lincoln come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Burnley. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Watford.

LWatford 1-0 LincolnChampionship
LLincoln 1-3 BirminghamChampionship
WLincoln 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
DMillwall 2-2 LincolnChampionship
LLincoln 0-6 West HamChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Watford

M. AntonioNot in squad
K. BaahKnock
E. BoveKnee Injury
N. ChikovaniNot in squad
S. CoulibalyHamstring Injury
J. GrievesNot in squad
J. NgakiaThigh Injury
L. KjerrumgaardNot in squad

Lincoln

T. DarikwaKnee Injury
M. MeliaThigh Injury

🧩 Line-ups

Lincoln 3-4-2-1

1Wickens

4Coubiș

25Elerewe

15Bradley

33Oyegoke

26Konak

8Bayliss

20Elder

27Ogbene

18House

34Draper

10Boadu

45Mavididi

17Bravo

7Maamma

5Kyprianou

39Kayembe

16Bola

4Keben

6Pollock

23Traoré

1Ravaglia

Watford 4-2-3-1

Lincoln

Official starting XI (3-4-2-1)

Coach: Chris Cohen

Substitutes17Street3Reach19Olaofe22Hamer7Hackett46Gauci6Towler24Varfolomeev16Jefferies

Watford

Official starting XI (4-2-3-1)

Coach: A. Dionisi

Substitutes26Bachmann15Diatta20Doumbia9Kjerrumgaard29Mlačić21Nabizada22Payero11Vata33Zemura

Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Watford at 24% to win and Lincoln at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lincoln Win	51%	33%	@ 2.80
Draw	25%	28%	@ 3.30
Watford Win	24%	38%	@ 2.45

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lincoln or Draw at 1.53 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lincoln or Draw	76%	62%	@ 1.53
Watford or Draw	49%	67%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	69%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	58%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	42%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	31%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	22%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	48%	56%	@ 1.67

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Watford or Lincoln is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lincoln +1.75	93%	85%	@ 1.12
Lincoln +1.5	91%	80%	@ 1.18
Lincoln +1.25	87%	79%	@ 1.20
Lincoln +1	84%	77%	@ 1.24
Lincoln +0.75	80%	69%	@ 1.39
Lincoln +0.5	76%	62%	@ 1.53
Watford +1.5	73%	83%	1.14
Lincoln +0.25	70%	56%	@ 1.71
Watford +1.25	67%	82%	1.16
Lincoln 0	63%	48%	@ 2.01
Watford +1	61%	80%	1.20
Lincoln -0.25	57%	40%	@ 2.37
Watford +0.75	55%	72%	1.32
Lincoln -0.5	51%	35%	@ 2.73
Watford +0.5	49%	65%	1.46
Lincoln -0.75	45%	28%	@ 3.40
Watford +0.25	43%	60%	1.59
Lincoln -1	39%	20%	@ 4.71
Watford 0	37%	52%	1.85
Lincoln -1.25	33%	18%	@ 5.25
Watford -0.25	30%	44%	2.17
Lincoln -1.5	27%	17%	@ 5.75
Watford -0.5	24%	38%	2.50
Watford -0.75	20%	31%	3.06
Watford -1	17%	23%	4.09
Watford -1.25	13%	21%	4.40
Watford -1.5	9%	20%	4.80
Watford -1.75	7%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

Watford 38%Draw 28%Lincoln 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Watford vs Lincoln?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Watford vs Lincoln?

Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.3 scoreline for Watford vs Lincoln.

What is the predicted score for Watford vs Lincoln?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.08 for Watford and 1.30 for Lincoln. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Watford and Lincoln play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 03 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.