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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
France vs Sweden Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for France vs Sweden at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 30 June 2026, 21:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – New-York.
Result: France 3-0 Sweden
France vs Sweden finished 3-0. France won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 2.5 goals at 1.48, landed.
France met Sweden in Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium – New-York, finishing 3-0. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a France win the most likely result at 87%, projecting a 2.5-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for France vs Sweden with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.6% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.6% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for France vs Sweden is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a France win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 87%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points no (50%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is France to win by 3+ goals at odds 2.85 (+47.3% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices France at 87% to win and Sweden at 4%, with the draw at 9%. Our model makes a France win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| France Win | 87% | 1.26 | +9.6% |
| Draw | 9% | 5.70 | -50.4% |
| Sweden Win | 4% | 9.80 | -57.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is France or Sweden (draw excluded) at 1.13 (91% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| France or Sweden – Double Chance (12) | 91% | 1.13 | +3.2% |
| France or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 96% | 1.04 | -0.5% |
| Sweden or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 13% | 3.70 | -51.9% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 59% | 2.20 | +30.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.48 | +15.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 1.15 | +5.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 41% | 1.65 | -32.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 2.60 | -43.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 5.25 | -57.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 50% | 1.85 | -6.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.85 | -8.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when France or Sweden is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| France -3.5 | 33% | 5.50 | +79.8% |
| France -4.5 | 18% | 9.20 | +66.5% |
| France -2.5 | 52% | 2.85 | +47.3% |
| France -1.5 | 72% | 1.75 | +25.1% |
| France -0.5 | 87% | 1.30 | +13.1% |
| France +0.5 | 96% | 1.03 | -1.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the France vs Sweden prediction correct?
France vs Sweden finished 3-0. Our pre-match best bet, over 2.5 goals at 1.48, landed.
What is the prediction for France vs Sweden?
Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.48, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is France to win by 3+ goals at 2.85 (+47.3% value).
Who is the favourite for France vs Sweden?
Our model makes a France win the most likely result at 87%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.8 scoreline for France vs Sweden.
What is the predicted score for France vs Sweden?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.49 for France and 0.79 for Sweden. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do France and Sweden play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 30 June 2026, 21:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – New-York.
Where is France vs Sweden being played?
The match takes place at MetLife Stadium – New-York, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.