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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Germany vs Paraguay Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Germany vs Paraguay at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Monday 29 June 2026, 20:30 UTC at Gillette Stadium – Boston.
Result: Germany 1-1 Paraguay
Germany vs Paraguay finished 1-1 (Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties). Paraguay won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.42, landed.
Germany met Paraguay in Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Gillette Stadium – Boston, finishing 1-1 (Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties). Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Germany win the most likely result at 66%, projecting a 2.2-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Germany vs Paraguay with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.8% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Germany vs Paraguay is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Germany win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 66%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (59%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.10 (+12.1% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Germany at 66% to win and Paraguay at 12%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Germany win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 21% | 5.10 | +8.6% |
| Paraguay Win | 12% | 8.00 | +0.0% |
| Germany Win | 66% | 1.33 | -12.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paraguay or the draw at 3.25 (34% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 34% | 3.25 | +9.8% |
| Germany or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 88% | 1.05 | -8.1% |
| Germany or Paraguay – Double Chance (12) | 79% | 1.15 | -9.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 28% | 4.20 | +17.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 2.10 | +12.1% |
| Under 3.5 | 75% | 1.42 | +6.4% |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 1.22 | -12.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 1.70 | -20.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 2.80 | -29.7% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 59% | 1.70 | +-0.0% |
| BTTS Yes | 41% | 2.05 | -15.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Germany or Paraguay is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany +1.5 | 97% | 1.01 | -2.2% |
| Germany +0.5 | 88% | 1.10 | -3.7% |
| Germany -0.5 | 66% | 1.30 | -13.9% |
| Germany -1.5 | 40% | 1.93 | -22.8% |
| Germany -2.5 | 20% | 3.30 | -35.7% |
| Germany -3.5 | 8% | 6.40 | -50.1% |
| Germany -4.5 | 3% | 14.50 | -62.3% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Germany vs Paraguay prediction correct?
Germany vs Paraguay finished 1-1 (Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties). Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.42, landed.
What is the prediction for Germany vs Paraguay?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.10 (+12.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Germany vs Paraguay?
Our model makes a Germany win the most likely result at 66%. It projects an expected 2.2-0.7 scoreline for Germany vs Paraguay.
What is the predicted score for Germany vs Paraguay?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.15 for Germany and 0.74 for Paraguay. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Germany and Paraguay play?
Kick-off is Monday 29 June 2026, 20:30 UTC at Gillette Stadium – Boston.
Where is Germany vs Paraguay being played?
The match takes place at Gillette Stadium – Boston, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.