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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Mexico vs South Korea Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Mexico vs South Korea at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Friday 19 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at Estadio Akron – Zapopan.
Result: Mexico 1-0 South Korea
Mexico vs South Korea finished 1-0. Mexico won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.20, landed.
Mexico met South Korea in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Estadio Akron – Zapopan, finishing 1-0. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Mexico win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.4-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Mexico vs South Korea with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 13.9% | 12.7% | 5.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Our prediction for Mexico vs South Korea is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.20, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Mexico win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is South Korea or the draw at odds 1.77 (-1.1% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Mexico at 44% to win and South Korea at 28%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Mexico win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea Win | 28% | 3.90 | +7.3% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 | -7.7% |
| Mexico Win | 44% | 2.02 | -10.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is South Korea or the draw at 1.77 (56% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 56% | 1.77 | -1.1% |
| Mexico or South Korea – Double Chance (12) | 72% | 1.28 | -8.4% |
| Mexico or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 72% | 1.25 | -9.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 81% | 1.20 | -2.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.57 | -3.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 35% | 2.70 | -6.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 1.44 | -6.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.35 | -9.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 4.33 | -19.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.73 | -3.5% |
| BTTS Yes | 44% | 2.00 | -11.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Mexico or South Korea is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico +2.5 | 97% | 1.01 | -1.6% |
| Mexico +1.5 | 90% | 1.01 | -8.8% |
| Mexico +0.5 | 72% | 1.25 | -9.4% |
| Mexico -0.5 | 44% | 1.95 | -14.0% |
| Mexico -1.5 | 20% | 3.80 | -24.0% |
| Mexico -2.5 | 7% | 7.00 | -51.0% |
| Mexico -3.5 | 2% | 13.00 | -74.0% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Mexico vs South Korea prediction correct?
Mexico vs South Korea finished 1-0. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.20, landed.
What is the prediction for Mexico vs South Korea?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.20, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is South Korea or the draw at 1.77 (-1.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Mexico vs South Korea?
Our model makes a Mexico win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.4-0.9 scoreline for Mexico vs South Korea.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs South Korea?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Mexico and 0.91 for South Korea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Mexico and South Korea play?
Kick-off is Friday 19 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at Estadio Akron – Zapopan.
Where is Mexico vs South Korea being played?
The match takes place at Estadio Akron – Zapopan, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.