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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Netherlands vs Sweden Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Netherlands vs Sweden at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Saturday 20 June 2026, 17:00 UTC at NRG Stadium – Houston.
Result: Netherlands 5-1 Sweden
Netherlands vs Sweden finished 5-1. Netherlands won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.22, landed.
Netherlands met Sweden in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at NRG Stadium – Houston, finishing 5-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 83%, projecting a 1.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Netherlands vs Sweden with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.8% | 10.7% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.1% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Our prediction for Netherlands vs Sweden is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.22, the selection our model is most confident in at 92%. On the match result, the model rates a Netherlands win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 83%. Goals lean over 2.5 (79%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Netherlands to win by 2+ goals at odds 2.85 (+87.8% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Netherlands at 83% to win and Sweden at 6%, with the draw at 11%. Our model makes a Netherlands win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands Win | 83% | 1.71 | +41.8% |
| Draw | 11% | 3.90 | -58.7% |
| Sweden Win | 6% | 4.35 | -71.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Netherlands or the draw at 1.18 (94% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 94% | 1.18 | +10.3% |
| Netherlands or Sweden – Double Chance (12) | 89% | 1.20 | +7.3% |
| Sweden or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 17% | 2.10 | -64.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 79% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 2.70 | +62.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.67 | +31.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 1.22 | +12.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | 1.45 | -42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 2.15 | -54.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 4.20 | -67.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 43% | 2.15 | -7.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.62 | -7.7% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Netherlands or Sweden is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands -3.5 | 28% | 10.00 | +179.0% |
| Netherlands -2.5 | 46% | 5.75 | +163.9% |
| Netherlands -1.5 | 66% | 2.85 | +87.8% |
| Netherlands -0.5 | 83% | 1.67 | +38.4% |
| Netherlands +0.5 | 94% | 1.21 | +13.1% |
| Netherlands +2.5 | 100% | 1.01 | +0.6% |
| Netherlands +1.5 | 98% | 1.01 | -0.9% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Netherlands vs Sweden prediction correct?
Netherlands vs Sweden finished 5-1. Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.22, landed.
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Sweden?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.22, with 92% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Netherlands to win by 2+ goals at 2.85 (+87.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Netherlands vs Sweden?
Our model makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 83%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline for Netherlands vs Sweden.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Sweden?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.85 for Netherlands and 1.09 for Sweden. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Netherlands and Sweden play?
Kick-off is Saturday 20 June 2026, 17:00 UTC at NRG Stadium – Houston.
Where is Netherlands vs Sweden being played?
The match takes place at NRG Stadium – Houston, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.