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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Norway vs Senegal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Norway vs Senegal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 23 June 2026, 00:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Result: Norway 3-2 Senegal
Norway vs Senegal finished 3-2. Norway won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Norway or Senegal (draw excluded) at 1.25, landed.
Norway met Senegal in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, finishing 3-2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Senegal win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Norway vs Senegal with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.5% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Norway vs Senegal is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Norway or Senegal (draw excluded) at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Senegal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Senegal or the draw at odds 1.65 (+10.1% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Norway at 33% to win and Senegal at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Senegal win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal Win | 40% | 3.15 | +27.3% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 | -10.6% |
| Norway Win | 33% | 2.18 | -27.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Senegal or the draw at 1.65 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 67% | 1.65 | +10.1% |
| Norway or Senegal – Double Chance (12) | 74% | 1.25 | -7.9% |
| Norway or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 60% | 1.35 | -19.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.90 | -1.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 1.33 | -2.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 3.55 | -5.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 1.28 | -6.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 1.85 | -10.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 3.20 | -15.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 47% | 2.05 | -3.4% |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.70 | -10.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Norway or Senegal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway +2.5 | 93% | 1.02 | -5.0% |
| Norway +1.5 | 81% | 1.10 | -10.7% |
| Norway +0.5 | 60% | 1.38 | -17.8% |
| Norway -0.5 | 33% | 2.15 | -28.4% |
| Norway -1.5 | 14% | 4.15 | -41.5% |
| Norway -2.5 | 5% | 8.10 | -61.9% |
| Norway -3.5 | 1% | 23.00 | -72.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Norway vs Senegal prediction correct?
Norway vs Senegal finished 3-2. Our pre-match best bet, Norway or Senegal (draw excluded) at 1.25, landed.
What is the prediction for Norway vs Senegal?
Our main pick is Norway or Senegal (draw excluded) at odds 1.25, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Senegal or the draw at 1.65 (+10.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Norway vs Senegal?
Our model makes a Senegal win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline for Norway vs Senegal.
What is the predicted score for Norway vs Senegal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Norway and 1.21 for Senegal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Norway and Senegal play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 23 June 2026, 00:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Where is Norway vs Senegal being played?
The match takes place at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.