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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Senegal vs Iraq Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Senegal vs Iraq at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Friday 26 June 2026, 19:00 UTC at BMO Field – Toronto.
Senegal face Iraq in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, kicking off Friday 26 June 2026, 19:00 UTC at BMO Field – Toronto. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Senegal win the most likely result at 67%, projecting a 2.4-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Senegal vs Iraq with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 10.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 6.4% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Senegal vs Iraq is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, the selection our model is most confident in at 85%. On the match result, the model rates a Senegal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 67%. Goals lean under 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points no (72%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.40 (+60.3% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Senegal at 67% to win and Iraq at 10%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Senegal win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24% | 5.60 | +33.3% |
| Iraq Win | 10% | 11.50 | +10.4% |
| Senegal Win | 67% | 1.24 | -17.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Iraq or the draw at 3.90 (33% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 33% | 3.90 | +30.3% |
| Senegal or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 90% | 1.04 | -6.0% |
| Senegal or Iraq – Double Chance (12) | 76% | 1.12 | -14.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 40% | 4.75 | +88.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 2.40 | +60.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 85% | 1.57 | +33.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 1.18 | -28.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 1.55 | -48.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 2.35 | -65.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 72%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 72% | 1.73 | +24.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 28% | 2.00 | -44.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Senegal or Iraq is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal +1.5 | 98% | 1.01 | -0.8% |
| Senegal +0.5 | 90% | 1.04 | -6.0% |
| Senegal -0.5 | 67% | 1.22 | -18.7% |
| Senegal -1.5 | 38% | 1.70 | -36.3% |
| Senegal -2.5 | 16% | 2.68 | -55.8% |
| Senegal -3.5 | 6% | 4.80 | -72.2% |
| Senegal -4.5 | 2% | 9.30 | -84.2% |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Senegal vs Iraq?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with 85% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.40 (+60.3% value).
Who is the favourite for Senegal vs Iraq?
Our model makes a Senegal win the most likely result at 67%. It projects an expected 2.4-0.7 scoreline for Senegal vs Iraq.
What is the predicted score for Senegal vs Iraq?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.44 for Senegal and 0.70 for Iraq. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Senegal and Iraq play?
Kick-off is Friday 26 June 2026, 19:00 UTC at BMO Field – Toronto.
Where is Senegal vs Iraq being played?
The match takes place at BMO Field – Toronto, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.