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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Final
Spain vs Argentina Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Spain vs Argentina at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Sunday 19 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Result: Spain 1-0 Argentina
Spain vs Argentina finished 1-0 after extra time. Spain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Spain or Argentina (draw excluded) at 1.30, landed.
Spain met Argentina in Final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, finishing 1-0 after extra time. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Spain win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Spain vs Argentina with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Spain vs Argentina is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Spain or Argentina (draw excluded) at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates a Spain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (56%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Argentina or the draw at odds 1.62 (+3.4% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Spain at 36% to win and Argentina at 35%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina Win | 35% | 3.45 | +19.7% |
| Draw | 29% | 2.98 | -13.3% |
| Spain Win | 36% | 2.25 | -18.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Argentina or the draw at 1.62 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 64% | 1.62 | +3.4% |
| Spain or Argentina – Double Chance (12) | 71% | 1.30 | -7.8% |
| Spain or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 65% | 1.30 | -15.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | +0.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 82% | 1.22 | -0.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 35% | 2.80 | -0.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 1.42 | -8.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.25 | -15.0% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 4.20 | -24.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.80 | -0.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 44% | 1.90 | -15.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Spain or Argentina is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain +2.5 | 96% | 1.01 | -3.2% |
| Spain +1.5 | 86% | 1.03 | -11.2% |
| Spain +0.5 | 65% | 1.30 | -15.1% |
| Spain -0.5 | 36% | 2.15 | -22.2% |
| Spain -1.5 | 15% | 4.40 | -35.3% |
| Spain -2.5 | 5% | 10.50 | -51.7% |
| Spain -3.5 | 1% | 28.00 | -69.2% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Spain vs Argentina prediction correct?
Spain vs Argentina finished 1-0 after extra time. Our pre-match best bet, Spain or Argentina (draw excluded) at 1.30, landed.
What is the prediction for Spain vs Argentina?
Our main pick is Spain or Argentina (draw excluded) at odds 1.30, with 71% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Argentina or the draw at 1.62 (+3.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Spain vs Argentina?
Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.0 scoreline for Spain vs Argentina.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Spain and 1.03 for Argentina. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Spain and Argentina play?
Kick-off is Sunday 19 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford.
Where is Spain vs Argentina being played?
The match takes place at MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.