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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Quarter-final
Spain vs Belgium Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Spain vs Belgium at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Friday 10 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles.
Result: Spain 2-1 Belgium
Spain vs Belgium finished 2-1. Spain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, a Spain win at 1.62, landed.
Spain met Belgium in Quarter-final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, finishing 2-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Spain win the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Spain vs Belgium with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.1% | 9.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Spain vs Belgium is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is a Spain win at odds 1.62, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a Spain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.70 (+5.9% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Spain at 63% to win and Belgium at 17%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain Win | 63% | 1.62 | +2.5% |
| Belgium Win | 17% | 5.20 | -11.6% |
| Draw | 20% | 3.85 | -24.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Spain or the draw at 1.17 (83% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 83% | 1.17 | -2.9% |
| Spain or Belgium – Double Chance (12) | 80% | 1.20 | -3.6% |
| Belgium or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 37% | 2.20 | -19.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 2.80 | +12.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.70 | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 1.22 | +1.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 1.42 | -14.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.10 | -20.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 4.20 | -29.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.70 | -2.8% |
| BTTS No | 43% | 2.05 | -12.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Spain or Belgium is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain -2.5 | 21% | 5.25 | +11.3% |
| Spain -1.5 | 40% | 2.68 | +7.7% |
| Spain -0.5 | 63% | 1.62 | +2.5% |
| Spain +2.5 | 98% | 1.00 | -1.6% |
| Spain +0.5 | 83% | 1.16 | -3.7% |
| Spain +1.5 | 94% | 1.02 | -4.1% |
| Spain -3.5 | 9% | 9.10 | -15.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Spain vs Belgium prediction correct?
Spain vs Belgium finished 2-1. Our pre-match best bet, a Spain win at 1.62, landed.
What is the prediction for Spain vs Belgium?
Our main pick is a Spain win at odds 1.62, with 63% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.70 (+5.9% value).
Who is the favourite for Spain vs Belgium?
Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Spain vs Belgium.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.91 for Spain and 0.99 for Belgium. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Spain and Belgium play?
Kick-off is Friday 10 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles.
Where is Spain vs Belgium being played?
The match takes place at SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.