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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Tunisia vs Netherlands Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Tunisia vs Netherlands at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Thursday 25 June 2026, 23:00 UTC at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City.
Result: Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands
Tunisia vs Netherlands finished 1-3. Netherlands won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Tunisia met Netherlands in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, finishing 1-3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 0.6-2.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Tunisia vs Netherlands with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 9.4% |
| 1 | 1.7% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| 2 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Our prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Tunisia with a +3.5 start at odds 1.38, the selection our model is most confident in at 94%. On the match result, the model rates a Netherlands win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.90 (+64.7% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Tunisia at 13% to win and Netherlands at 64%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Netherlands win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia Win | 13% | 20.00 | +168.0% |
| Draw | 23% | 9.10 | +106.6% |
| Netherlands Win | 64% | 1.10 | -29.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Tunisia or the draw at 6.00 (36% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 36% | 6.00 | +116.6% |
| Netherlands or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 87% | 1.01 | -12.5% |
| Tunisia or Netherlands – Double Chance (12) | 77% | 1.06 | -18.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.6-2.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 31% | 6.25 | +91.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 2.90 | +64.7% |
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 1.80 | +39.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 1.11 | -23.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 1.40 | -39.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 2.00 | -55.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 2.55 | +1.2% |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.45 | -12.6% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Tunisia or Netherlands is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia +0.5 | 36% | 7.00 | +152.7% |
| Tunisia +2.5 | 83% | 1.90 | +57.3% |
| Tunisia +1.5 | 63% | 2.50 | +57.0% |
| Tunisia +3.5 | 94% | 1.38 | +29.0% |
| Tunisia +4.5 | 98% | 1.15 | +12.6% |
| Tunisia -0.5 | 13% | 7.50 | +0.5% |
| Tunisia +5.5 | 99% | 1.00 | -0.6% |
| Tunisia -1.5 | 3% | 13.00 | -55.8% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Tunisia vs Netherlands prediction correct?
Tunisia vs Netherlands finished 1-3.
What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our main pick is Tunisia with a +3.5 start at odds 1.38, with 94% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.90 (+64.7% value).
Who is the favourite for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our model makes a Netherlands win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 0.6-2.9 scoreline for Tunisia vs Netherlands.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-3, based on expected goals of 0.56 for Tunisia and 2.92 for Netherlands. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Tunisia and Netherlands play?
Kick-off is Thursday 25 June 2026, 23:00 UTC at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City.
Where is Tunisia vs Netherlands being played?
The match takes place at Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.