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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Türkiye vs USA Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Türkiye vs USA at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Friday 26 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood.
Result: Türkiye 3-2 USA
Türkiye vs USA finished 3-2. Türkiye won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Türkiye met USA in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, finishing 3-2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Türkiye win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.2-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Türkiye vs USA with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 6.7% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
Our prediction for Türkiye vs USA is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Türkiye with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates a Türkiye win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (65%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Türkiye or the draw at odds 1.85 (+23.6% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Türkiye at 44% to win and USA at 33%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Türkiye win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye Win | 44% | 3.40 | +49.6% |
| Draw | 23% | 3.90 | -11.1% |
| USA Win | 33% | 1.92 | -36.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Türkiye or the draw at 1.85 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 67% | 1.85 | +23.6% |
| Türkiye or USA – Double Chance (12) | 77% | 1.20 | -7.4% |
| USA or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 56% | 1.28 | -28.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 2.80 | +18.2% |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.70 | +9.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 1.22 | +2.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 1.42 | -17.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.10 | -25.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 4.20 | -34.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.62 | +5.5% |
| BTTS No | 35% | 2.15 | -25.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Türkiye or USA is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye -1.5 | 24% | 6.80 | +60.5% |
| Türkiye -2.5 | 10% | 13.00 | +33.9% |
| Türkiye +0.5 | 67% | 1.85 | +23.6% |
| Türkiye -0.5 | 44% | 2.55 | +12.2% |
| Türkiye +1.5 | 84% | 1.32 | +11.3% |
| Türkiye +2.5 | 94% | 1.11 | +4.3% |
| Türkiye +3.5 | 98% | 1.02 | +0.1% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Türkiye vs USA prediction correct?
Türkiye vs USA finished 3-2.
What is the prediction for Türkiye vs USA?
Our main pick is Türkiye with a +1.5 start at odds 1.32, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Türkiye or the draw at 1.85 (+23.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Türkiye vs USA?
Our model makes a Türkiye win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.7 scoreline for Türkiye vs USA.
What is the predicted score for Türkiye vs USA?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.21 for Türkiye and 1.69 for USA. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Türkiye and USA play?
Kick-off is Friday 26 June 2026, 02:00 UTC at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood.
Where is Türkiye vs USA being played?
The match takes place at SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.