vs
⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
USA vs Belgium Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for USA vs Belgium at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 07 July 2026, 00:00 UTC at Lumen Field – Seattle.
Result: USA 1-4 Belgium
USA vs Belgium finished 1-4. Belgium won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Belgium or the draw at 1.48, landed.
USA met Belgium in Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lumen Field – Seattle, finishing 1-4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Belgium win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.5-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for USA vs Belgium with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 11.3% | 8.4% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Our prediction for USA vs Belgium is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Belgium or the draw at odds 1.48, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Belgium win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean over 2.5 (76%), both teams to score points yes (71%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Belgium win at odds 2.58 (+53.5% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices USA at 22% to win and Belgium at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Belgium win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium Win | 60% | 2.58 | +53.5% |
| Draw | 19% | 3.35 | -37.7% |
| USA Win | 22% | 2.58 | -43.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Belgium or the draw at 1.48 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 78% | 1.48 | +15.6% |
| USA or Belgium – Double Chance (12) | 81% | 1.25 | +1.8% |
| USA or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 40% | 1.48 | -40.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 76% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 2.60 | +45.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.65 | +24.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 1.22 | +10.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 44% | 1.48 | -34.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 2.20 | -46.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 10% | 4.20 | -60.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 71% | 1.50 | +6.1% |
| BTTS No | 29% | 2.40 | -29.7% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when USA or Belgium is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA +2.5 | 78% | 1.00 | -21.5% |
| USA +1.5 | 61% | 1.17 | -28.4% |
| USA +0.5 | 40% | 1.50 | -39.2% |
| USA -0.5 | 22% | 2.50 | -45.3% |
| USA -1.5 | 10% | 5.00 | -52.5% |
| USA -2.5 | 3% | 9.30 | -68.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the USA vs Belgium prediction correct?
USA vs Belgium finished 1-4. Our pre-match best bet, Belgium or the draw at 1.48, landed.
What is the prediction for USA vs Belgium?
Our main pick is Belgium or the draw at odds 1.48, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Belgium win at 2.58 (+53.5% value).
Who is the favourite for USA vs Belgium?
Our model makes a Belgium win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline for USA vs Belgium.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Belgium?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for USA and 1.49 for Belgium. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do USA and Belgium play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 07 July 2026, 00:00 UTC at Lumen Field – Seattle.
Where is USA vs Belgium being played?
The match takes place at Lumen Field – Seattle, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
More World Cup predictions
Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.