šŸ† Competitions

Premier League

Premier League Betting Tips

Free daily Premier League tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

Picks
About
Key Facts
How We Bet
Bookmakers
Standings
FAQ

Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
England, Premier League
Sun 18 Oct
15:30		Over 1.573.7%@ 1.30

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Manchester City vs Ipswich
England, Premier League
Sat 17 Oct
14:00		Over 2.578.1%@ 1.36+6.3%
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
England, Premier League
Sat 17 Oct
16:30		Over 2.565.6%@ 1.62+6.3%
Everton vs Chelsea
England, Premier League
Sat 17 Oct
11:30		Everton or Draw63.9%@ 1.70+8.6%
Fulham vs Hull City
England, Premier League
Sat 17 Oct
14:00		Hull City or Draw53.6%@ 2.20+17.9%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Everton vs Chelsea ā–¼
England, Premier League
11:30		Market30%@3.1025%@3.8045%@2.1078%@1.2264%@1.5059%@1.57
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
DC X2
70%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
DC 1X
55%
@ 1.70
Away Win
45%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Home Win
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Brentford vs Liverpool ā–¼
England, Premier League
14:00		Market39%@2.3825%@3.7536%@2.6081%@1.1760%@1.5763%@1.50
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC 1X
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Over 2.5
62%
@ 1.53
DC X2
61%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Home Win
39%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
38%
@ 2.50
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
Away Win
36%
@ 2.60
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Fulham vs Hull City ā–¼
England, Premier League
14:00		Market56%@1.6524%@3.9020%@4.7578%@1.2266%@1.4455%@1.70
DC 1X
80%
@ 1.18
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
Home Win
56%
@ 1.65
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
DC X2
44%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Draw
24%
@ 3.90
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Away Win
20%
@ 4.75
Manchester City vs Ipswich ā–¼
England, Premier League
14:00		Market76%@1.2215%@6.008%@11.0085%@1.1150%@1.9152%@1.80
DC 1X
92%
@ 1.06
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
Home Win
76%
@ 1.22
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.20
DC X2
24%
@ 4.00
Draw
15%
@ 6.00
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
Away Win
8%
@ 11.00
Newcastle vs Aston Villa ā–¼
England, Premier League
16:30		Market45%@2.0526%@3.6029%@3.2581%@1.1760%@1.5761%@1.53
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC 1X
71%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
DC X2
55%
@ 1.73
Home Win
45%
@ 2.05
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Away Win
29%
@ 3.25
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Bournemouth vs Sunderland ā–¼
England, Premier League
13:00		Market48%@1.9527%@3.5026%@3.6076%@1.2568%@1.4055%@1.70
Over 1.5
76%
@ 1.25
DC 1X
74%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
68%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
Over 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
DC X2
52%
@ 1.80
Home Win
48%
@ 1.95
Under 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Over 3.5
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Away Win
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
24%
@ 4.00
Brighton vs Crystal Palace ā–¼
England, Premier League
13:00		Market60%@1.5322%@4.2018%@5.2581%@1.1760%@1.5756%@1.67
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Home Win
60%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
DC X2
40%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.38
Draw
22%
@ 4.20
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Leeds vs Manchester United ā–¼
England, Premier League
13:00		Market38%@2.4026%@3.5035%@2.6279%@1.2064%@1.5061%@1.53
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC 1X
65%
@ 1.44
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
DC X2
62%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Home Win
38%
@ 2.40
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Away Win
35%
@ 2.62
Draw
26%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal ā–¼
England, Premier League
15:30		Market18%@5.2522%@4.2060%@1.5573%@1.3072%@1.3348%@1.95
DC X2
82%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
73%
@ 1.30
Under 3.5
72%
@ 1.33
Away Win
60%
@ 1.55
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
DC 1X
40%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
28%
@ 3.40
Under 1.5
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
22%
@ 4.20
Home Win
18%
@ 5.25
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Premier League

The Premier League is the most watched football league in the world, featuring 20 clubs competing across 38 matchdays. It generates more betting volume than almost any other competition on the planet, and with good reason, the quality, unpredictability and sheer volume of matches make it a bettor’s playground.

What makes the Premier League uniquely challenging is its competitiveness. The gap between the top six and the rest is smaller than in most European leagues, and upsets are more frequent. This means you cannot simply back the biggest clubs and expect profit. Our AI models are specifically trained to identify where bookmakers have mispriced the true probability.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.77
goals per match on average
55.1%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
55.8%
of matches see both teams score
41.9%
home wins

Based on 439 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Premier League

āš½
Lowest home win rate in Europe
Premier League home sides win only 43% of matches, far below La Liga’s 50% or the Bundesliga’s 47%. This reflects the extraordinary competitiveness of the league.
šŸ 
Upset capital of Europe
No major league produces more upsets than the Premier League. Bottom-half clubs beat top-six sides at home more often here than in any comparable competition. Our models specifically track these upset patterns.
šŸŽÆ
European fixture fatigue
Teams competing in the Champions League or Europa League on Wednesday/Thursday show measurable performance drops the following weekend.
šŸ†
Over 2.5 goals: 55% hit rate
The Premier League averages 2.85 goals per game, above the European average. Over 2.5 goals is our most consistent market, particularly in matches involving the top attacking sides.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they donā€™t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Premier League Betting Record

33.3% of our published tips won 18 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
šŸ“… 10 Oct 2026āŒ Loss
Sunderland vs Brighton
Pick: Sunderland Asian Handicap +1.0 @ 1.30
šŸ’” Market consensus puts this at 73.4% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
šŸ“… 12 Sep 2026ā†©ļø Void
Tottenham vs Everton
Pick: Everton Asian Handicap +0.0 @ 2.71
šŸ’” Model gives 54.7% probability for this selection. At odds 2.71 this represents +48.0% expected value. Selected as extra value pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.
šŸ“… 04 Sep 2026āŒ Loss
Ipswich vs Liverpool
Pick: Over 3.5 @ 2.50
šŸ’” Model gives 55.8% probability for this selection. At odds 2.50 this represents +39.5% expected value. Selected as extra value pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Premier League match analyses →

Premier League Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Manchester City Manchester City6600165+1118
WWWWW
2Arsenal Arsenal6501105+515
WLWWW
3Brighton Brighton6411185+1313
WWWDL
4Brentford Brentford6240126+610
DWDDD
5Everton Everton624085+310
DWDDD
6Chelsea Chelsea63121513+210
WLDLW
7Leeds Leeds623185+39
LDWDD
8Hull City Hull City623186+29
DLDDW
9Liverpool Liverpool623177+09
LWDWD
10Ipswich Ipswich6303912-39
WLWLL
11Newcastle Newcastle522199+08
WLDWD
12Crystal Palace Crystal Palace6213912-37
WDLWL
13Manchester United Manchester United613299+06
DDLDW
14Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest612358-35
LLWDD
15Aston Villa Aston Villa6123611-55
DWLDL
16Sunderland Sunderland6114612-64
LLLDW
17Bournemouth Bournemouth6033713-63
LLDDD
18Tottenham Tottenham603339-63
DLDDL
19Coventry Coventry5104110-93
WLLLL
20Fulham Fulham6024610-42
LDDLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
H
E. Haaland6
Manchester CityManchester City
0
2
P
JoĆ£o Pedro5
ChelseaChelsea
3
3
C
R. Cherki4
Manchester CityManchester City
2
4
R
M. Rogers4
ChelseaChelsea
1
5
I
A. Isak4
LiverpoolLiverpool
0
6
B
M. Belloumi3
Hull CityHull City
2
7
T
M. Tavernier3
BournemouthBournemouth
0
8
S
K. Schade3
BrentfordBrentford
0
9
B
T. Barry3
EvertonEverton
0
10
C
D. Calvert-Lewin3
LeedsLeeds
0

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
G
P. GroƟ4
BrightonBrighton
2
P
JoĆ£o Pedro3
ChelseaChelsea
3
P
C. Palmer3
ChelseaChelsea
4
S
A. Semenyo3
Manchester CityManchester City
5
G
J. Gvardiol3
Manchester CityManchester City
6
E
Evanilson3
BournemouthBournemouth
7
K
D. Kamada3
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
8
G
C. Gakpo3
LiverpoolLiverpool
9
R
D. Rice3
ArsenalArsenal
10
C
R. Cherki2
Manchester CityManchester City

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Premier League tips?

We post Premier League tips every weekend and on midweek matchdays. During busy fixture periods we cover multiple matches per day.

Why is the Premier League so unpredictable?

The financial power of the league means even the bottom clubs can afford quality players. The gap between the best and worst teams is much smaller than in La Liga or the Bundesliga, making upsets far more common.

Are your Premier League tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram to get tips delivered every morning.

What bet types work best in the Premier League?

We donā€™t call any market ā€˜bestā€™: every analysis shows model and market probabilities for all markets, and our statistics page shows how each market has done for our picks. In the Premier League, draws and upsets are common, which makes the 1X2 market harder to call.

Also Follow Our Tips For

Get free tips, every day

Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.

Or follow us

18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.

⚠ Bet responsibly. Only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+ only.