Sat 19 Sep2-2Finished

⚽ Eredivisie

Ajax vs Excelsior Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Ajax vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Ajax 2-2 Excelsior

Ajax vs Excelsior finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.25, landed.

Ajax face Excelsior in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Ajax have 3 wins from their last 5, while Excelsior have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Excelsior won 1, 4 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 2.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Ajax vs Excelsior with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Excelsior +2 @ 2.01

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.18 – 1.19 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.4%	4.1%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
1	7.5%	8.9%	5.3%	2.1%	0.6%
2	8.2%	9.7%	5.8%	2.3%	0.7%
3	5.9%	7.1%	4.2%	1.7%	0.5%
4	3.2%	3.9%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Ajax winDrawExcelsior win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Ajax vs Excelsior comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 2.01, the selection our model is most confident in at 71%. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Ajax 64%Draw 19%Excelsior 17%

64%19%17%

64%

Ajax Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Ajax and Excelsior. Wins shown from Ajax’s perspective: 4 drawn · Excelsior 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-19	Ajax	2 – 2	Excelsior	D
2026-02-01	Excelsior	2 – 2	Ajax	D
2025-11-22	Ajax	1 – 2	Excelsior	L
2024-04-24	Ajax	2 – 2	Excelsior	D
2023-08-19	Excelsior	2 – 2	Ajax	D

📈 Recent form

Ajax

Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Utrecht.

DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
DNEC Nijmegen 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Ajax

S. AdingraFoot Injury
D. BlindInjury
A. BouwmanInjury

Excelsior

N. NaujoksNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Ajax at 64% to win and Excelsior at 17%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax Win	64%	78%	@ 1.22
Draw	19%	14%	@ 7.00
Excelsior Win	17%	9%	@ 11.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Ajax or Draw at 1.05 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax or Draw	84%	91%	@ 1.05
Excelsior or Draw	37%	22%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	90%	@ 1.06
Over 2.5	65%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 3.5	56%	41%	@ 2.25
Over 3.5	44%	59%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	35%	24%	@ 4.00
Under 1.5	15%	10%	@ 10.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	38%	42%	@ 2.20

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Ajax or Excelsior is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Ajax +0.5	84%	85%	1.12
Ajax +0.25	79%	84%	1.13
Ajax 0	74%	86%	1.10
Excelsior +2	71%	48%	@ 2.01
Ajax -0.25	68%	83%	1.14
Excelsior +1.75	66%	43%	@ 2.23
Ajax -0.5	63%	–	1.25
Excelsior +1.5	62%	38%	@ 2.46
Ajax -0.75	57%	76%	1.25
Excelsior +1.25	56%	33%	@ 2.92
Ajax -1	51%	75%	1.26
Excelsior +1	49%	25%	@ 3.75
Ajax -1.25	44%	67%	1.41
Excelsior +0.75	43%	24%	@ 3.86
Ajax -1.5	38%	61%	1.54
Ajax -1.75	34%	57%	1.67
Excelsior +0.25	32%	17%	@ 5.75
Ajax -2	29%	52%	1.82
Excelsior 0	26%	14%	@ 6.80
Excelsior -0.25	21%	16%	@ 5.90
Excelsior -0.5	16%	15%	@ 6.40

📈 How the market moved

Ajax 78%Draw 13%Excelsior 9%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ajax vs Excelsior?

Our model's main pick is Excelsior with a +2 start at odds 2.01, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 48%.

Who is the favourite for Ajax vs Excelsior?

Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline for Ajax vs Excelsior.

What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Excelsior?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.18 for Ajax and 1.19 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Ajax and Excelsior play?

Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.