⚽ Serie A
AS Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Sassuolo in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 07 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
AS Roma face Sassuolo in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 07 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: AS Roma have 3 wins from their last 5, while Sassuolo have no wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, AS Roma won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 79%, projecting a 2.4-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Sassuolo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 8.7% | 8.0% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.4% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 8.3% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for AS Roma vs Sassuolo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 79%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between AS Roma and Sassuolo. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: AS Roma 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | AS Roma | 2 – 0 | Sassuolo | W |
| 2025-10-26 | Sassuolo | 0 – 1 | AS Roma | W |
| 2024-03-17 | AS Roma | 1 – 0 | Sassuolo | W |
| 2023-12-03 | Sassuolo | 1 – 2 | AS Roma | W |
📈 Recent form
AS Roma come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Slovan Bratislava. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Manchester United.
- LManchester United 3-2 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
- WUdinese 2-5 AS RomaSerie A
- WAS Roma 4-2 CagliariSerie A
- DNapoli 3-3 AS RomaSerie A
- WAS Roma 4-0 Slovan BratislavaUEFA Champions League
Sassuolo come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 17. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Fiorentina.
- LSassuolo 2-4 FiorentinaSerie A
- LSassuolo 2-6 LazioSerie A
- LComo 2-0 SassuoloSerie A
- LFrosinone 4-2 SassuoloSerie A
- DSassuolo 1-1 AC MilanSerie A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
No absentees reported.
- I. KonéBroken Leg
- E. PieragnoloJumpers Knee
- Fali CandéJumpers Knee
- D. BolocaMuscle Bruise
- Y. PazJumpers Knee
🧩 Likely line-ups & team news
Sassuolo
Coach: A. Aquilani
AS Roma
Coach: G. Gasperini
Expected line-ups are based on each team's last starting XI and the reported absences. Official line-ups are released about an hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices AS Roma at 79% to win and Sassuolo at 8%, with the draw at 12%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma Win | 79% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Draw | 12% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Sassuolo Win | 8% | 11% | @ 9.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.07 (92% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma or Draw | 92% | 89% | @ 1.07 |
| Sassuolo or Draw | 22% | 27% | @ 3.40 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84% | 85% | @ 1.11 |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Under 3.5 | 58% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 16% | 15% | @ 6.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 44% | @ 2.10 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 70% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 79%. It projects an expected 2.4-0.9 scoreline for AS Roma vs Sassuolo.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.39 for AS Roma and 0.92 for Sassuolo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do AS Roma and Sassuolo play?
Kick-off is Saturday 07 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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RodezAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.