⚽ La Liga
Athletic Club vs Alavés Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Athletic Club vs Alavés in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
Result: Athletic Club 0-0 Alavés
Athletic Club vs Alavés finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, did not land.
Athletic Club face Alavés in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:15 UTC. Recent form: Athletic Club have 2 wins from their last 5, while Alavés have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Athletic Club won 2, Alavés won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Athletic Club win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Athletic Club vs Alavés with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.5% | 11.8% | 6.6% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Alavés with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 83%. On the match result, the model rates an Athletic Club win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Athletic Club and Alavés. Wins shown from Athletic Club’s perspective: Athletic Club 2 · 2 drawn · Alavés 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Athletic Club | 0 – 0 | Alavés | D |
| 2026-05-02 | Alavés | 2 – 4 | Athletic Club | W |
| 2025-09-13 | Athletic Club | 0 – 1 | Alavés | L |
| 2025-05-11 | Athletic Club | 1 – 0 | Alavés | W |
| 2024-12-15 | Alavés | 1 – 1 | Athletic Club | D |
📈 Recent form
Athletic Club come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Atlético Madrid. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Barcelona.
- DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
- DAthletic Club 1-1 ElcheLa Liga
- WAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WCelta Vigo 0-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
- LBarcelona 2-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.
- DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
- LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
- LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
- WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
- WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- U. EgiluzKnee Injury
- G. GuruzetaMuscle Injury
- D. VivianHamstring Injury
- F. GarcesSuspended
- A. ManasInjury
- M. RodriguezAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Athletic Club at 41% to win and Alavés at 30%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club Win | 41% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| Alavés Win | 30% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Athletic Club or Draw at 1.17 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club or Draw | 68% | 82% | @ 1.17 |
| Alavés or Draw | 58% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 | 71% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 51% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 50% | @ 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| BTTS No | 47% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Athletic Club or Alavés is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alavés +2 | 86% | 80% | @ 1.19 |
| Alavés +1.75 | 83% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| Alavés +1.5 | 80% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Alavés +1.25 | 74% | 61% | @ 1.56 |
| Athletic Club +0.75 | 73% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Alavés +1 | 69% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Athletic Club +0.5 | 68% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Alavés +0.75 | 63% | 47% | @ 2.06 |
| Athletic Club +0.25 | 62% | – | 1.21 |
| Alavés +0.5 | 58% | 41% | @ 2.31 |
| Athletic Club 0 | 55% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Alavés +0.25 | 51% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| Athletic Club -0.25 | 49% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Alavés 0 | 45% | 24% | @ 3.98 |
| Athletic Club -0.5 | 42% | 59% | 1.64 |
| Athletic Club -0.75 | 37% | 53% | 1.82 |
| Alavés -0.5 | 32% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Athletic Club -1 | 31% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Alavés -0.75 | 27% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Athletic Club -1.25 | 26% | 39% | 2.46 |
| Athletic Club -1.5 | 20% | 34% | 2.82 |
| Athletic Club -1.75 | 17% | 27% | 3.52 |
| Athletic Club -2 | 14% | 20% | 4.62 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs Alavés?
Our model's main pick is Alavés with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Alavés?
Our model makes an Athletic Club win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Athletic Club vs Alavés.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs Alavés?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Athletic Club and 1.12 for Alavés. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Athletic Club and Alavés play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 14:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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