⚽ Major League Soccer
Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC
Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, New York City FC with a +1 start at 1.31, landed.
Atlanta United FC face New York City FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Atlanta United FC have 1 win from their last 5, while New York City FC have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, 5 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlanta United FC win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is New York City FC with a +1 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Atlanta United FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Atlanta United FC and New York City FC. Wins shown from Atlanta United FC’s perspective: 5 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Atlanta United FC | 2 – 2 | New York City FC | D |
| 2024-07-17 | Atlanta United FC | 2 – 2 | New York City FC | D |
| 2024-04-06 | New York City FC | 1 – 1 | Atlanta United FC | D |
| 2023-06-21 | Atlanta United FC | 2 – 2 | New York City FC | D |
| 2023-04-08 | New York City FC | 1 – 1 | Atlanta United FC | D |
📈 Recent form
Atlanta United FC come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Portland Timbers. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Orlando City SC.
- DAtlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- DDC United 0-0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- DInter Miami 2-2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.
- DAtlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 17 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. AlmironInternational duty
- J. AlonsoInternational duty
- P. DiazInternational duty
- A. MiranchukInternational duty
- F. PicaultInternational duty
- S. AlzateIllness
- T. JacobInjury
- D. BaieraKnee Injury
- A. FarnosInjury
- M. FreeseInternational duty
- T. GrayInternational duty
- M. IlenicInternational duty
- M. MoralezKnee Injury
- A. O'NeillInternational duty
- K. ParksInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlanta United FC at 38% to win and New York City FC at 31%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes an Atlanta United FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC Win | 38% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| New York City FC Win | 31% | 32% | @ 3.00 |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | @ 3.60 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlanta United FC or Draw at 1.36 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC or Draw | 66% | 68% | @ 1.36 |
| New York City FC or Draw | 60% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 72% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlanta United FC or New York City FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC +1.5 | 86% | 84% | 1.12 |
| New York City FC +1.75 | 84% | 83% | 1.14 |
| New York City FC +1.5 | 81% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Atlanta United FC +1.25 | 81% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Atlanta United FC +1 | 76% | 82% | 1.16 |
| New York City FC +1.25 | 76% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.75 | 71% | 74% | 1.28 |
| New York City FC +1 | 71% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.5 | 66% | 68% | 1.41 |
| New York City FC +0.75 | 65% | 64% | 1.49 |
| New York City FC +0.5 | 60% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.25 | 60% | 63% | 1.51 |
| New York City FC +0.25 | 53% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Atlanta United FC 0 | 53% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.25 | 47% | 48% | 1.99 |
| New York City FC 0 | 47% | 43% | @ 2.23 |
| New York City FC -0.25 | 40% | 37% | @ 2.57 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.5 | 40% | 42% | 2.27 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.75 | 35% | 36% | 2.65 |
| New York City FC -0.5 | 34% | 32% | 2.93 |
| Atlanta United FC -1 | 29% | 27% | @ 3.47 |
| New York City FC -0.75 | 29% | 26% | @ 3.66 |
| Atlanta United FC -1.25 | 24% | 25% | 3.86 |
| New York City FC -1 | 24% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| New York City FC -1.25 | 19% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Atlanta United FC -1.5 | 19% | 23% | 4.15 |
| Atlanta United FC -1.75 | 16% | 17% | 5.75 |
| New York City FC -1.5 | 14% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Our main pick is New York City FC with a +1 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
Our model makes an Atlanta United FC win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC.
What is the predicted score for Atlanta United FC vs New York City FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Atlanta United FC and 1.34 for New York City FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlanta United FC and New York City FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 26 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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