⚽ Brazilian Série A
Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Saturday 19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Atlético Mineiro 1-1 Chapecoense
Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.25, landed.
Atlético Mineiro face Chapecoense in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Saturday 19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Atlético Mineiro have 3 wins from their last 5, while Chapecoense have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Atlético Mineiro won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 2.0-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 9.9% | 10.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Chapecoense with a +2 start at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (55%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Atlético Mineiro and Chapecoense. Wins shown from Atlético Mineiro’s perspective: Atlético Mineiro 1 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Atlético Mineiro | 1 – 1 | Chapecoense | D |
| 2026-04-02 | Chapecoense | 0 – 4 | Atlético Mineiro | W |
📈 Recent form
Atlético Mineiro come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Santos. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Santos.
- DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- WAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- WAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
- LSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- LSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A
Chapecoense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Internacional.
- DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LChapecoense 1-2 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
- WCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- LGrêmio 3-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
- WChapecoense 1-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- EversonFoot Injury
- ReinierInjury
- Ruan TressoldiMuscle Injury
- Bruno TubaraoNot in squad
- HeitorNot in squad
- Joao PauloSuspended (cards)
- Max AlvesInjury
- Rafael CarvalheiraKnee Injury
- Robert ConceicaoKnee Injury
- Vinicius BalieiroNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Atlético Mineiro at 51% to win and Chapecoense at 20%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro Win | 51% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| Draw | 29% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Chapecoense Win | 20% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Mineiro or Draw at 1.08 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro or Draw | 78% | 88% | @ 1.08 |
| Chapecoense or Draw | 46% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 65% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 45% | @ 2.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 20% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| BTTS No | 45% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Mineiro or Chapecoense is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense +2 | 79% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Atlético Mineiro +0.5 | 78% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Chapecoense +1.75 | 75% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Atlético Mineiro +0.25 | 72% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Chapecoense +1.5 | 71% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Atlético Mineiro 0 | 66% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Chapecoense +1.25 | 65% | 49% | @ 1.99 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.25 | 60% | – | 1.25 |
| Chapecoense +1 | 59% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.5 | 54% | – | 1.39 |
| Chapecoense +0.75 | 53% | 35% | @ 2.68 |
| Atlético Mineiro -0.75 | 47% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1 | 41% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.25 | 35% | 51% | 1.88 |
| Chapecoense 0 | 34% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.5 | 29% | 45% | 2.13 |
| Chapecoense -0.25 | 28% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Atlético Mineiro -1.75 | 25% | 39% | 2.45 |
| Chapecoense -0.5 | 22% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Atlético Mineiro -2 | 21% | 30% | 3.12 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense?
Our model's main pick is Chapecoense with a +2 start at odds 1.36, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense?
Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.0 scoreline for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.01 for Chapecoense. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Atlético Mineiro and Chapecoense play?
Kick-off is Saturday 19 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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